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SICK_VENDETTA
09-18-2013, 01:02 AM
is it me or is this pattern too repetitive?

T4 boxes seem to be acting kinda funky..
id probably look into that trion.

is anyone having similar occasions?

boogiejive
09-18-2013, 01:03 AM
o ya happens all the time its the go to

Chump Norris
09-18-2013, 01:08 AM
lol I opened 2 tonight Blue Blue Blue Green then Blue Blue Green Green so I open a T2 and Orange Blue gotta love Defiance.

SICK_VENDETTA
09-18-2013, 01:13 AM
they should give one purple for each t4 i mean its 64 KEYS!

i have like 3 videos opening 6 boxes BBBG BBBG BBBG BBBP BBBB BBBG

im uploading them now. Trion has to open boxes themselves to find out.

Call Me Gus
09-18-2013, 01:57 AM
I stopped buying T4s,
Now i only buy T3s which usually gives me Blue Green Green but sometimes if i'm lucky it's Blue Bleu Green.

Aeothena
09-18-2013, 02:33 AM
Last thing I did before quitting this game was STARTING to buy T4 instead of T3. After 15 useless T3 boxes I bought 2 T4. Got 2 orqange in the first one and a third in the second. I'd go for the T4 anytime if I ever got the idea to return to Defiance. Havn't even bothered to logg on after DLC....

Thearl
09-18-2013, 05:07 AM
I swapped back to buying T4s a couple weeks ago. After buying a couple hundred T3s, I have too many epics I want to master before vendoring. Buying the T4s seems like a better time/game investment than purchasing DLC 1 for a charge blade. B,B,B,G is still the most common result, and has been since patch 1.020. Since swapping back to the T4s, I've pulled one VBI sniper oj, one purp breaker, one purp clustershot, 18 random blues, and 7 random greens.

Just to repeat myself - the T4 RNG is like Global Warming. Trion (the gov) says this is happening. The gamer stat geeks (analogous to the scientists) say RNG! Then the average player says but B,B,B,G 2/3 times is not RNG (Analogous to citizens saying, but wait, it's been cool this summer!)

Yrkul
09-18-2013, 05:59 AM
I'm also only getting BBBG now. When DLC1 hit I got two crappy oranges in the first two T4 I bought. Third gave a blue charge blade. After that it has been a disappointment to open a lockbox. It's safe to say that noone will buy those boxes for bits if this pattern keeps up.

Cavadus
09-18-2013, 11:49 AM
Statistically, on a per 100 keys basis T4s have almost double the chance to drop an orange than 100 keys worth of T3s.

Everything else is nothing but meaningless anecdotes and confirmation bias. T4s are the best way to get oranges, T3s are the best way to get purples.

http://forums.defiance.com/showthread.php?20963-The-Lockbox-Data-Collection-Project

Now queue all of the chuckleheads who will argue that their "feelings" are more accurate than cold, raw statistics.

bxBLAZExd
09-18-2013, 12:03 PM
most of the time i get 2 of the same blu guns i think there should b a better % rate on ojs theres no shortage of them but adding a better chance off getting some will stop all these rip off artists asking way to much 4 a oj i guy wanted 110k for a auto pistol no syn and self revive come on man:confused:

Yrkul
09-18-2013, 02:06 PM
Statistically, on a per 100 keys basis T4s have almost double the chance to drop an orange than 100 keys worth of T3s.

Everything else is nothing but meaningless anecdotes and confirmation bias. T4s are the best way to get oranges, T3s are the best way to get purples.

http://forums.defiance.com/showthread.php?20963-The-Lockbox-Data-Collection-Project

Now queue all of the chuckleheads who will argue that their "feelings" are more accurate than cold, raw statistics.

Can you guarantee that:


Every participant submitting data is doing so for every single box they open?


Trion has not changed the way items are generated in regards to rarity during the time the data was collected?


If the answer to either is a no or a mmnnn... maybe? then we aren't talking statistics, but anecdotal evidence.

You are right in one thing, though. Nothing can be concluded from the observations of a handful of people. Yet if a pattern is forming, it's worth looking into.

SICK_VENDETTA
09-18-2013, 02:29 PM
Statistically, on a per 100 keys basis T4s have almost double the chance to drop an orange than 100 keys worth of T3s.

Everything else is nothing but meaningless anecdotes and confirmation bias. T4s are the best way to get oranges, T3s are the best way to get purples.

http://forums.defiance.com/showthread.php?20963-The-Lockbox-Data-Collection-Project

Now queue all of the chuckleheads who will argue that their "feelings" are more accurate than cold, raw statistics.

i understand this. but unfortunately this isnt the o' "whats better t4 or t3" question. why i wrote this thread was to inform that t4 have been consistently only been paying BBBG and i wanted to see if anyone was having similar issues.

boogiejive
09-18-2013, 02:36 PM
ill do world tours where i start at the top and work my way down buying a box at every location and i did a t4 tour and got 4 ojs then did a t3 tour where i bought 3 each place and only got 2 ojs so i think t4s are just a bit better and less keys then 3 t3s to

Justified
09-18-2013, 02:37 PM
You're not alone Sick.

http://forums.defiance.com/showthread.php?134436-16-T4-Lockboxes-in-a-row-Blue-Blue-Blue-Green.-Six.-Teen.-Times.

From the last few T4's I've bought, I've also gotten the bbbg combo. I'm guessing this is a side effect of their patch/DLC to "enhance the T4 lock box drops."

boogiejive
09-18-2013, 02:40 PM
its not from the dlc i have been getting that combo from day 1 its just the most go to like i said before

Cavadus
09-18-2013, 03:33 PM
Every participant submitting data is doing so for every single box they open?
Trion has not changed the way items are generated in regards to rarity during the time the data was collected?


Obviously no one can guarantee point #1. #2 is irrelevant since enough entries over time will shape the data to reflect new patterns. It's a self-correcting document (especially if it weights newer entries more heavily than older entries so changes are more pronounced).


If the answer to either is a no or a mmnnn... maybe? then we aren't talking statistics, but anecdotal evidence.

Just because someone may have only entered 400 out 421 lockboxes doesn't turn these statistics into anecdotes, sorry. It just means that percentages of percentages could be +/-. It would hardly influence any averages so long as enough total data points have been collected. And to me that margin of error is, well, marginal and doesn't affect any trends in the data project in any significant way. Certainly not in a significant enough way to alter the final conclusions.

@ SICK_VENDETTA
As I mentioned earlier, I had gone about a month with 1-2 T4 boxes per night with nary a purple, let alone an orange. A week and a half ago I pulled two oranges back-to-back. WAI, IMO.

If a lockbox only has a 5% chance to drop an orange that doesn't mean anyone is guaranteed an orange per 20 lockboxes. It's perfectly feasible to open an unlimited amount of lockboxes and never get an orange. It's perfectly feasible to open five lockboxes and get two oranges per.

Xzelian
09-18-2013, 04:49 PM
Regarding the pattern,

O.k. I would put in quotes for those who say that this is normal for stats, and would quote those who say "huh?" but I'll just save us all some time and summarize.

I too get the BBBG, pattern all too often.

I firmly believe that like many other items in this game, the RNG is bugged or even possibly weighted for specific players.

Forget the "Orange to others" ratio that people are trying to sort.

RNG means "Random Number Generator" not "Random Non-Orange Generator."

The point of this discussion is that out of something that is supposed to be RNG, the likelihood of BBBG in the mix this often suggests ANYTHING but Random.

I am a certified poker tourney director and can tell you that if a single player were to lay down a hand that consistently showed club, club, club, Heart, Heart 7 out of eight times, we'd have had players calling for a deck check and required reshuffles.
(suites being the best analogy as stats in reference to overall deck percentages don't add up with single card face values.)

Something is amiss here.

marcus magrov
09-18-2013, 05:04 PM
EGO 1600. I've bought mainly T4's from the start, averaging at least 2 a week and have NEVER even seen an orange. To me they are like the Loch Ness Monster.

Yrkul
09-18-2013, 06:41 PM
Obviously no one can guarantee point #1. #2 is irrelevant since enough entries over time will shape the data to reflect new patterns. It's a self-correcting document (especially if it weights newer entries more heavily than older entries so changes are more pronounced).

But is newer data weighted more heavily? If not, then development will show less clearly, the larger the data set is. Unless you up the input to match, that is.


Just because someone may have only entered 400 out 421 lockboxes doesn't turn these statistics into anecdotes, sorry. It just means that percentages of percentages could be +/-. It would hardly influence any averages so long as enough total data points have been collected. And to me that margin of error is, well, marginal and doesn't affect any trends in the data project in any significant way. Certainly not in a significant enough way to alter the final conclusions.

Depends on the reason why a box was left out of the data set. If the trend is, that a person lets a box slip now and again if unremarkable, then data from that person tends to skew towards good and/or bad results. You'll need data from people, who are consistent with their input, and as far as I can see, there is no guarantee of that.

The project does give an indication of drop rates, but really shouldn't be toted as evidence or cold, raw facts.

On a different note and just to throw a wrench in the possible rumour mill construction, I opened another T4 box today and got POPB. I thought "Hey! The human sacrifice worked" and burned all my salvage on two more... PBGG and BBBB. Hmh! Orange was a syphon grind fragger, but with crap stats and synergy. That and everything else went straight to the vendor.

Bottom line is, that it's too random to really be worth investing real money into. It also has the effect of creating a lot of disappointment, even if only in-game resources are spent. It makes it harder to get people to recommend buying lockboxes, let alone the game itself, with this sort of percieved contrivances.

Defy me
09-19-2013, 08:11 AM
Not playin anymore, but I have over 60 legendarys lol, I should give them away....but don't want to lol

Anyway, before I stopped playin, I was probably on box # 30

ALL 30 were:

blue blue blue green


all of them...

boogiejive
09-19-2013, 08:56 AM
30 in a row of bbbg no way thats got to be some kind of a record i mean i have had my streaks of them but at least gotten a purple in there

Thearl
09-19-2013, 09:08 AM
you'll have to go digging back into June/July posts, but someone said they spent something insane like 7 million salvage opening T4s the very first bonus loot weekend event we had and got no OJs and maybe a dozen epics out of 100+ boxes. I opened 32 T4s and 20 T3s that same weekend. Every T4 was B,B,B,G.

boogiejive
09-19-2013, 09:12 AM
ya like a month before the dlc i spent about 2.5 million salvage bt i was buying a t4 2 t3 then 72 keys in t2s and repeated the process till it was all gone and only got about 4 ojs out of it all no idea which boxes they came out of either

Deunan
09-19-2013, 11:28 AM
I am a certified poker tourney director and can tell you that if a single player were to lay down a hand that consistently showed club, club, club, Heart, Heart 7 out of eight times, we'd have had players calling for a deck check and required reshuffles.This is a poor analogy. If the combined percentage chance of getting either a green or a blue with blue more likely is roughly 70% that's more comparable to the likelihood of getting either nothing or a pair on your initial hand in 5 card draw, which is extremely common. A more meaningful analogy is that getting an orange supposedly is more likely than getting 2 pair on your initial dealt hand.