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PseudoCool
06-09-2014, 08:04 AM
Hi Gang,

As a few of you may have read, I'm doing a 1000 T2 box project.. opening up T2 boxes ONLY, and only using scrip, salvage, and keys earned IN GAME. I'm not buying any of them from the store for this project. The simple purpose is to check the RNG of the game to see if it's "working as intended"

So Far, I've opened a total of 150 boxes, and I'll give you a short breakdown of the results so far:

Oranges - ZERO
Purples - 22
Blues - 53
Green - 84
White - ZERO

AF - 350 *note - only started recording the "extra's" in the last 50 boxes, so this is from 50 boxes ONLY*

So far, the highest payout per box seems to be coming from Shondu's Consulate. This is both in Purples AND AF/Extras. I've gotten spikes, stims, and grenades as well, but I'm not counting those for this test (yet). I do have them recorded.

So.. to be short.. no oranges yet to test the "percentage chance" of getting them in a T2 box, and Shondu's consulate appears at this stage to be the best chance of getting AF drops in T2's. Top Notch is the worst at this point across the board, with nothing but green's there and only 20 AF dropped.

I will keep everyone updated as the project progresses.

Holy Bahamut3
06-09-2014, 08:17 AM
I have found the AF chances to be higher at shondus as well. Been pulling from there mostly. I hope Etaew takes your data and puts it on his site when all is said and done.

drackiller
06-09-2014, 08:20 AM
Well , sunday i opened much less than 50 (way much less) and i got 3 Ojs.

Whisky Tango
06-09-2014, 08:29 AM
You seem very unlucky. I pull OJs out of thr Colt Tower Teir 2 all the time.

Etaew
06-09-2014, 08:31 AM
I have found the AF chances to be higher at shondus as well. Been pulling from there mostly. I hope Etaew takes your data and puts it on his site when all is said and done.

Maybe not a copy and paste of final results, I'd rather generate my own. Perhaps I can put a form up for Holy and others to put their results in?

I also don't think that the location of boxes affect anything, since its the same item being opened.

drackiller
06-09-2014, 08:32 AM
Maybe not a copy and paste of final results, I'd rather generate my own. Perhaps I can put a form up for Holy and others to put their results in?

I also don't think that the location of boxes affect anything, since its the same item being opened.

Why not? Loks like a good idea.

Etaew
06-09-2014, 08:36 AM
Why not? Loks like a good idea.

Because results in small numbers don't feel accurate, and the conclusions drawn from them I don't entirely agree with (e.g. location). I'm not saying my site is totally accurate, and I definitely want to show people what they can get from lockboxes which is why I suggested opening it up and allowing people to submit so the numbers could be larger.

The biggest problem with collection is that it is hand entered, which is painful. If only we could have an external chat log that I could throw up a parser for, all this magical stuff could be imported nicely.

drackiller
06-09-2014, 08:40 AM
Because results in small numbers don't feel accurate, and the conclusions drawn from them I don't entirely agree with (e.g. location). I'm not saying my site is totally accurate, and I definitely want to show people what they can get from lockboxes which is why I suggested opening it up and allowing people to submit so the numbers could be larger.

The biggest problem with collection is that it is hand entered, which is painful. If only we could have an external chat log that I could throw up a parser for, all this magical stuff could be imported nicely.

I agree with you, that`s the reason of my "why not ?".
A larger sample would be nice, but you always be dependant on players input...and that is not always reliable.
If you create such mechanism, i`ll try my best to input my data the best way i can.

Whisky Tango
06-09-2014, 08:41 AM
Ask Trion if you can data mine their Teir 2 lockbox data. Wouldn't hurt to ask.

Roez
06-09-2014, 08:42 AM
This kind of reminds me about the RNG discussion focused around Diablo III lately. Basically, trying to inform people how RNG works, what outliers are, what sample sizes mean, standard deviation, etc.

It's interesting. There's apparently a lot of human notions which lead people to make incorrect conclusions. For lack of a better way of saying it, people tend to see patterns where none exist.

The law of large numbers. Start compiling samples, large samples, and have people commit to it ahead of time (People who have good success might be more inclined to report it after the fact, who knows).

I'm curious to see where this goes.

drackiller
06-09-2014, 08:42 AM
Ask Trion if you can data mine their Teir 2 lockbox data. Wouldn't hurt to ask.

LOL, that won`t happen ever :)

Etaew
06-09-2014, 08:46 AM
This kind of reminds me about the RNG discussion focused around Diablo III has had lately. Basically, trying to inform people how RNG works, what outliers are, what sample sizes mean, standard deviation, etc.

Hah, similar to one of my other projects lol. I've been breaking tracking thousands of accounts, hundreds of thousands of items, half a million instances of items, and 3 million instances of bonuses. Yay numbers!

For more info check out DiabloNut: http://diablonut.incgamers.com/armory/

Etaew
06-09-2014, 08:47 AM
Ask Trion if you can data mine their Teir 2 lockbox data. Wouldn't hurt to ask.

I've put out a request for the rules involved in each lockbox, but they have a long list of information requests I've sent them and it takes a long time for them to find time to do anything. Busy times.

Roez
06-09-2014, 08:48 AM
Hah, similar to one of my other projects lol. I've been breaking tracking thousands of accounts, hundreds of thousands of items, half a million instances of items, and 3 million instances of bonuses. Yay numbers!

For more info check out DiabloNut: http://diablonut.incgamers.com/armory/


Small internet world. I've seen your site linked before on a couple other forums.

Maida
06-09-2014, 08:57 AM
I doubt location matters. I don't think they would code each box differently that would be a nightmare to have to update. It appears that a lot of the coding problems are due to laziness and not using standard coding and documentation principles. It's unlikely that the previous coder monkeys would make more work for themselves by coding each box separately.

Simple probability will tell you that each individual purchase is unrelated to the other. Many things we think are impossible are just extraordinarily unlikely. It is possible to get 10 ojs in a row. As you approach infinity the distribution should approach the drop rate. It

dramaQkarri
06-09-2014, 09:33 AM
I got 2 OJ's over the weekend from T2's, nothing special but not horrible either. I didn't play a lot so probably only opened about 50-60 T2's.

My thinking is the RNG is working as intended. I'd LOVE to know what the drop rate it supposed to be tuned to. I also would like to know what the drop rate for Gunslinger & 7th legion are tuned to cuz I have a feeling it can't be more than 2% or so. I will stop my derail NOW - let's stick to T2 data.

If Etaew sets up some kind of form for us to populate with quantifiable data I'd be happy to keep more accurate track of it and add my numbers to the pool.

OttawaREDBLACKS
06-09-2014, 09:37 AM
I have constantly been pulling oranges and arkforge from iron demon ranch. Personally I would rather never pull legendaries because the majority now a day suck a ton.

Griffix8
06-09-2014, 09:39 AM
I got 2 OJ shotties (one of them was really good) from Shondu's lockboxes.

PTR47
06-09-2014, 09:40 AM
I've been doing something similar, only my attempt is 100 T2 boxes from each vendor. I'm around the 30-35 mark at the moment.

So far I have tracked 420 T2 lockboxes.
Lengendaries - 10 (1.2%)
Epics - 45 (5.4%)
Rares - 154 (18.3%)
Uncommons - (75.1%)
Commons - 0

In terms of locations, Top-Notch and Bug n Chug have been the worst for me.

EDIT: I started tracking AF later, but I've gotten about a 72% return on keys (232 boxes tracked, 1350 AF recieved = 1856:1350)

N3gativeCr33p
06-09-2014, 09:44 AM
The best thing that I got from a T2 lockbox over at Shondu's this weekend was a "+50 AF" drop.

Etaew
06-09-2014, 09:57 AM
Ok just making the Lockboxes (http://www.defiancedata.com/lockboxes.php) page now, whether we decide to use it is another thing.

For the next step, the individual pages for each lockbox, there will be a form for registered users (sorry, but spam and all that on forums is horrid and for data collection we need to be accurate).

What should we capture?

For as many slots as the lockbox permits

- Select weapon model and rarity
- Select amount of arkforge
- Select shield model and rarity
- Select grenade and rarity
- Select spike and rarity
- Select grenade and rarity

Is that all the stuff that we can get from them? no salvage, scrip?

Whisky Tango
06-09-2014, 10:10 AM
Ok just making the Lockboxes (http://www.defiancedata.com/lockboxes.php) page now, whether we decide to use it is another thing.

For the next step, the individual pages for each lockbox, there will be a form for registered users (sorry, but spam and all that on forums is horrid and for data collection we need to be accurate).

What should we capture?

For as many slots as the lockbox permits

- Select weapon model and rarity
- Select amount of arkforge
- Select shield model and rarity
- Select grenade and rarity
- Select spike and rarity
- Select grenade and rarity

Is that all the stuff that we can get from them? no salvage, scrip?

I would eliminate grenade and spikes from that list. They are given out so often. In addition, I do not think that benefits the numbers for this data collections.

Etaew
06-09-2014, 10:12 AM
I would eliminate grenade and spikes from that list. They are given out so often. In addition, I do not think that benefits the numbers for this data collections.

But they use up a loot roll, so I think it's important probably.

Whisky Tango
06-09-2014, 10:15 AM
But they use up a loot roll, so I think it's important probably.

No, they are in addition to the items that you get. Basically they are extras. For example, if you buy a Tier 2 you receive 2 items, and a Grenade, Spike, or AF bonus.

Etaew
06-09-2014, 10:16 AM
No, they are in addition to the items that you get. Basically they are extras. For example, if you buy a Tier 2 you receive 2 items, and a Grenade, Spike, or AF bonus.

Ah then if we wanted to increase the scope of the collection to arkforge as well maybe we should still collect it. Also, do we get shields in the rolls? I put it down but my own limited tests I can't remember seeing one.

Whisky Tango
06-09-2014, 10:20 AM
Ah then if we wanted to increase the scope of the collection to arkforge as well maybe we should still collect it. Also, do we get shields in the rolls? I put it down but my own limited tests I can't remember seeing one.

Yeah, I think you could use the Spikes, Stems, Nades, and AF as bonus roll data. Those numbers will assist you in getting the % or getting AF. Also, I believe you can go :null in the bonus department also.

I do not ever remember obtaining shields from lockboxes. I do not see why you wouldn't be able to.

Griffix8
06-09-2014, 10:26 AM
Yeah, I think you could use the Spikes, Stems, Nades, and AF as bonus roll data. Those numbers will assist you in getting the % or getting AF. Also, I believe you can go :null in the bonus department also.

I do not ever remember obtaining shields from lockboxes. I do not see why you wouldn't be able to.
I get a lot of shields from the lockboxes.

PTR47
06-09-2014, 10:35 AM
Of the 200 lockboxes I have tracked in terms of what they are actually dropping, 39 items (9.75%) have been shields.

Keeper Riff
06-09-2014, 10:42 AM
I also don't think that the location of boxes affect anything, since its the same item being opened.But player's coordinates differ. They could be easily included into their RNG formula as well as other player data and overall statistics.

PTR47
06-09-2014, 10:54 AM
I think it's curious that Shondu's and Top Notch seem to continually pop up as good/bad places for buying boxes. As there is a question, I think it's valid to collect location data.

One hypothesis was part of the RNG loot table for world mobs in WoW. In WoW, the longer a mob lived without being killed, the more likely it was to have the better gear from its loot table. In a similar fashion, the number of purchases made at a box could effect the content of the box.

That's probably unlikely, as one particularly bad lockbox in terms of my records is at Port Stinson, and I can't imagine people making a special trip out there for the lock-box. And POW Farm seems to have offered respectable returns. You'd think they'd be more equal in terms of activity.

Anyways, if there's a question, its worth tracking. IMO

PseudoCool
06-09-2014, 10:55 AM
What I've done so far is this:

Location
Weapon/Shield name
rarity
synergy
nano
Bonus Roll 1 -> Bonus Roll 5 (each has it's own grid in the spreadsheet)
Extras (such as AF, stims, spikes, nades)
Ego level

I didn't want to put the "Extra's" as it's own roll because it's supposed to be something extra and unexpected from the Tier 2 box.

@Eteaw - clean out your mailbox and we can chat about this privately (You've got too many stored messages).

Whisky Tango
06-09-2014, 11:00 AM
I think it's curious that Shondu's and Top Notch seem to continually pop up as good/bad places for buying boxes. As there is a question, I think it's valid to collect location data.

One hypothesis was part of the RNG loot table for world mobs in WoW. In WoW, the longer a mob lived without being killed, the more likely it was to have the better gear from its loot table. In a similar fashion, the number of purchases made at a box could effect the content of the box.

That's probably unlikely, as one particularly bad lockbox in terms of my records is at Port Stinson, and I can't imagine people making a special trip out there for the lock-box. And POW Farm seems to have offered respectable returns. You'd think they'd be more equal in terms of activity.

Anyways, if there's a question, its worth tracking. IMO

I will have to agree with this. Most things, that are associated with being pulled, have a ratio on it. The ratio fills much quicker if people were using the same lockbox. However, it depends on if the Trion coders created one big database for lockboxes or separate ones for each location. One database and it would not matter, however with multiple little ones, it would.

PseudoCool
06-09-2014, 11:06 AM
I should have also mentioned this part: I'm doing my buying at one time per vendor, in 12 box increments. At the end, it should give a very valid and comparable evaluation of the RNG.

ironcladtrash
06-09-2014, 11:08 AM
There is one other problem with the data collection though. It's only relevant to whatever patch we are currently on. I do love seeing the data but Trion definitely changes the RNG behind the scenes with out telling us. Also with every patch it seems they re introduce old bugs that take them another couple of patches to sort out.

PTR47
06-09-2014, 11:19 AM
There is one other problem with the data collection though. It's only relevant to whatever patch we are currently on. I do love seeing the data but Trion definitely changes the RNG behind the scenes with out telling us. Also with every patch it seems they re introduce old bugs that take them another couple of patches to sort out.

Absolutely agree with this. Further to the patch number is local popularity -- by which I mean IF the popularity of a box affected its content and IF there was a data set that proved this definitively, you would expect an immediate jump in sales at the box which would affect its content. So a time stamp at data entry would probably allow you to do time queries without adding additional front-end complication.

Platform/server might also be useful. If the data needs to have login credentials, you might tie platform/server to user profile to remove manual entry.

Etaew
06-09-2014, 11:25 AM
@Eteaw - clean out your mailbox and we can chat about this privately (You've got too many stored messages).

Done and 10char

Etaew
06-09-2014, 11:26 AM
There is one other problem with the data collection though. It's only relevant to whatever patch we are currently on.

Yup, and so having this in the database with the date (or patch) stored will allow us to see this.

Etaew
06-09-2014, 11:28 AM
Absolutely agree with this. Further to the patch number is local popularity -- by which I mean IF the popularity of a box affected its content and IF there was a data set that proved this definitively, you would expect an immediate jump in sales at the box which would affect its content. So a time stamp at data entry would probably allow you to do time queries without adding additional front-end complication.

Platform/server might also be useful. If the data needs to have login credentials, you might tie platform/server to user profile to remove manual entry.

Sounds like you know your stuff, yeah I already have it pretty well mapped out how I'll have things shown on DD, using that authentication system and tracking who has submitted what. Will also allow for people to view what they have submitted and remove any mistakes they made themselves.

Omnifarious Xji
06-09-2014, 11:45 AM
I doubt location matters. I don't think they would code each box differently that would be a nightmare to have to update. It appears that a lot of the coding problems are due to laziness and not using standard coding and documentation principles. It's unlikely that the previous coder monkeys would make more work for themselves by coding each box separately.

Simple probability will tell you that each individual purchase is unrelated to the other. Many things we think are impossible are just extraordinarily unlikely. It is possible to get 10 ojs in a row. As you approach infinity the distribution should approach the drop rate. ItHey, I bought 3 T2 lockboxes in a row, and got 2 OJs.

cuba 666
06-09-2014, 11:51 AM
Hi Gang,

As a few of you may have read, I'm doing a 1000 T2 box project.. opening up T2 boxes ONLY, and only using scrip, salvage, and keys earned IN GAME. I'm not buying any of them from the store for this project. The simple purpose is to check the RNG of the game to see if it's "working as intended"

So Far, I've opened a total of 150 boxes, and I'll give you a short breakdown of the results so far:

Oranges - ZERO
Purples - 22
Blues - 53
Green - 84
White - ZERO

AF - 350 *note - only started recording the "extra's" in the last 50 boxes, so this is from 50 boxes ONLY*

So far, the highest payout per box seems to be coming from Shondu's Consulate. This is both in Purples AND AF/Extras. I've gotten spikes, stims, and grenades as well, but I'm not counting those for this test (yet). I do have them recorded.

So.. to be short.. no oranges yet to test the "percentage chance" of getting them in a T2 box, and Shondu's consulate appears at this stage to be the best chance of getting AF drops in T2's. Top Notch is the worst at this point across the board, with nothing but green's there and only 20 AF dropped.

I will keep everyone updated as the project progresses.

Just a suggestion...fast travel to different boxes every 5 tiers 2 you open.....

ironcladtrash
06-09-2014, 11:53 AM
Yup, and so having this in the database with the date (or patch) stored will allow us to see this.

That sounds great and can't wait to see what you guys come up with and the data.

PseudoCool
06-09-2014, 11:57 AM
I just replies to Eteaw privately. One thing I did think of, was having more people doing the exact same project, so if there's any volunteers from any platform that would like to take the time out to help, that would be great. Just send me an IM and I'll give you the skinny on how I'm doing it so we can be consistant.

Z0mb1E
06-09-2014, 01:04 PM
Maybe not a copy and paste of final results, I'd rather generate my own. Perhaps I can put a form up for Holy and others to put their results in?

I also don't think that the location of boxes affect anything, since its the same item being opened.

I think we need a larger sample of data. Would be good for anyone who wishes to participate to start logging all of our lockbox (all tiers) to a spreadsheet/small data set.

I do think it would be interesting to also log geo location on the map (who knows maybe the RNG uses a different seed in that location).

Z0mb1E
06-09-2014, 01:05 PM
So Etaew, you could make up a "standard" spreadsheet template of the data you collect on this. Have users fill out the spreadsheet and submit back to you for aggregation. I'd be willing to start logging all of my lockbox purchases if it helps us to start trending the distribution of loot.

SxB_xPUDDYTATx
06-09-2014, 01:48 PM
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aph_jKuS8QKYdDEzRzJTbzF5TURuVktpRFItTTNFS Wc#gid=0

can someone please go to this link? see if you can edit/add anything. i put in an example post. it should be set as editable by anyone, and viewable by everyone

Z0mb1E
06-09-2014, 01:50 PM
I'm willing to throw down 5 or 6 mil scrip/salvage to build on this data if someone has a good point to centralize it.

Etaew
06-09-2014, 01:53 PM
So Etaew, you could make up a "standard" spreadsheet template of the data you collect on this. Have users fill out the spreadsheet and submit back to you for aggregation. I'd be willing to start logging all of my lockbox purchases if it helps us to start trending the distribution of loot.

The form is almost ready, just clarifying on a few rules before I allow people to start submitting it.

In case the PM doesn't get answered quick enough:

- Each lockbox delivers the amount of items listed in its description as weapons or shields
- An additional item is rewarded as a grenade or spike or stim or arkforge???

Or is the arkforge an additional role after grenade or spike or stim?

Maida
06-09-2014, 02:59 PM
But player's coordinates differ. They could be easily included into their RNG formula as well as other player data and overall statistics.

Then it would not be a random number generator if it is based on any coordinates or player data.
Each vendor could have a separate table but again I think that would be far too complicated and a lot more work.

PTR47
06-09-2014, 03:17 PM
Ya, I don't think connecting ISP or geographical location would weigh in. Imagine we found out that people from Ohio were luckier than people from Madrid. I don't think that would work well.

There may be small variance across platforms, but it's unlikely.

Etaew
06-09-2014, 03:21 PM
Ya, I don't think connecting ISP or geographical location would weigh in. Imagine we found out that people from Ohio were luckier than people from Madrid. I don't think that would work well.

There may be small variance across platforms, but it's unlikely.

They are talking about the location of the player in the game world not their real world location, factors like these could be an issue if it is used as a seed for the RNG itself.

Whisky Tango
06-09-2014, 03:22 PM
The form is almost ready, just clarifying on a few rules before I allow people to start submitting it.

In case the PM doesn't get answered quick enough:

- Each lockbox delivers the amount of items listed in its description as weapons or shields
- An additional item is rewarded as a grenade or spike or stim or arkforge???

Or is the arkforge an additional role after grenade or spike or stim?

1) Yes, you receive the amount of items listed from the lockbox (i.e. 2 items in a T2 lockbox).
2) Spikes, Stims, Nades, and AF are all in one role. It is basically a bonus role on top of the # items that you receive.

PTR47
06-09-2014, 03:23 PM
Location in game may be a factor as I've stated previously. It may also not be, but unless data is collected neither claim can be substantiated.

PseudoCool
06-09-2014, 03:33 PM
Location in game may be a factor as I've stated previously. It may also not be, but unless data is collected neither claim can be substantiated.

This is exactly why I'm doing the locations as part of my spreadsheet, and working towards getting an even number of boxes (or relatively close, within a dozen) from each of the vendors. It's also why I'm adding in the nano's, synergies, and bonus rolls, as it's already apparent that those are also coming from the RNG into the new item.

I also think we should look at branching this out a bit to seperate the platforms.. afterall.. I see a LOT of people popping OJ's from Tier 2's from XBOX, but I've yet to pull one EVER from a T2 box, and I know I've opened well over 500 since the game started. Perhaps the RNG for PC is a bit different based on the number of players, boxes opened, or something else that the Dev's haven't given us the numbers for. I feel it's worth consideration.

Whisky Tango
06-09-2014, 03:34 PM
So it would look like this:

Roll 1: WEAPON or SHIELD and RARITY
Roll 2: WEAPON or SHIELD and RARITY
Roll 3: GRENADE or STIM or SPIKE and RARITY or ARK FORGE

Etaew
06-09-2014, 03:38 PM
So it would look like this:

Roll 1: WEAPON or SHIELD and RARITY
Roll 2: WEAPON or SHIELD and RARITY
Roll 3: GRENADE or STIM or SPIKE and RARITY or ARK FORGE

That's how it's looking for now.

I need to do another pass to make it more user friendly, but most of the fields are in now: http://www.defiancedata.com/lockbox.php?id=2 - not ready for data entry yet, just showing you the formy form

PseudoCool
06-09-2014, 03:39 PM
So it would look like this:

Roll 1: WEAPON or SHIELD and RARITY
Roll 2: WEAPON or SHIELD and RARITY
Roll 3: GRENADE or STIM or SPIKE and RARITY or ARK FORGE

To get the data where it's a true representation, you have to break it apart:
Location
Weapon/Shield
Rarity
Synergy
Nano
Bonus Roll 1
Bonus Roll 2
Bonus Roll 3
Bonus Roll 4
Bonus Roll 5
Extra's
Ego Level

In this way here, you're getting ALL of the information, so data mining later becomes less of a chore when you start going "Hey, I wonder how many weapons rolls are commonly Assassin with Radiation" (as an example). If you don't break it out and fill it in now, later you'll have to restart the entire thing to get those numbers, or to compare those numbers after another sneaky RNG "fix" that comes with a patch or DLC.

Whisky Tango
06-09-2014, 03:42 PM
To get the data where it's a true representation, you have to break it apart:
Location
Weapon/Shield
Rarity
Synergy
Nano
Bonus Roll 1
Bonus Roll 2
Bonus Roll 3
Bonus Roll 4
Bonus Roll 5
Extra's
Ego Level

In this way here, you're getting ALL of the information, so data mining later becomes less of a chore when you start going "Hey, I wonder how many weapons rolls are commonly Assassin with Radiation" (as an example). If you don't break it out and fill it in now, later you'll have to restart the entire thing to get those numbers, or to compare those numbers after another sneaky RNG "fix" that comes with a patch or DLC.

I think this might be to much information for the intended purpose. We are not trying to find out how "Epic" the weapon is, just the rarity.

Etaew
06-09-2014, 03:50 PM
I think this might be to much information for the intended purpose. We are not trying to find out how "Epic" the weapon is, just the rarity.

Yeah, the solution I am going with at the moment is having these fields flagged as optional, so that certain people can enter the entire info if they want, or for the quick rarity questions we can fill in only a few fields.

PseudoCool
06-09-2014, 03:51 PM
I think this might be to much information for the intended purpose. We are not trying to find out how "Epic" the weapon is, just the rarity.

I'm not worried about how "epic" the weapon is, or the rarity actually. I'm more interested in parsing the data for the RNG so we actually have an idea of how much of an epic fail or win our chances are when we open up a T2 box. Having the extra information is helpful in determining exactly how often specific synergies, nano's, or bonuses come up. Sure, its time consuming and a bunch of data to parse into a spread sheet.. but I'm confident in the end I'll be able to say "yes, the data shows that on average you have an XY% chance of getting XX weapon/shield"

Blu
06-09-2014, 03:53 PM
chances to be higher at shondus as well. Been pulling from there mostly.

when this game first came out, on release, some of us was farming keys at such a rate, they tried to limit them in the long run, but we still farmed them heavily ...

all we did was arkfalls, jump from friend to friends on diff servers, hit ark fall, move to another, collect 74 keys all day long, boxes after boxes were opened,

we started with a clan of 35 doing this, most ppl quit in time, I stayed,
I moved to one of the biggest clans in the game,

there use to be spread sheets for this, I haven't played this game for any amount of hours ina long time, but,

Shondu was always the place I got the most orange and purples, I at one time was doing over 3-10 t4 boxes in a weekend or so, I always bought t3 and always from shondu, in the end I had the most out of everyone farming keys and spending on lock boxes..

there was a trend to my RNG and others as well, I have no idea about now, but its odd someone mentioned it in there post, will prob end up farming the same place I did along time ago,

but t2's have and always were the less rewarding, don't know about now,

PseudoCool
06-09-2014, 03:57 PM
when this game first came out, on release, some of us was farming keys at such a rate, they tried to limit them in the long run, but we still farmed them heavily ...

all we did was arkfalls, jump from friend to friends on diff servers, hit ark fall, move to another, collect 74 keys all day long, boxes after boxes were opened,

we started with a clan of 35 doing this, most ppl quit in time, I stayed,
I moved to one of the biggest clans in the game,

there use to be spread sheets for this, I haven't played this game for any amount of hours ina long time, but,

Shondu was always the place I got the most orange and purples, I at one time was doing over 3-10 t4 boxes in a weekend or so, I always bought t3 and always from shondu, in the end I had the most out of everyone farming keys and spending on lock boxes..

there was a trend to my RNG and others as well, I have no idea about now, but its odd someone mentioned it in there post, will prob end up farming the same place I did along time ago,

but t2's have and always were the less rewarding, don't know about now,

As we're seeing it now, T2's have the best chance for Arkforge out of all the boxes, that's why we're doing them. I'm keeping track of the rest of the stuff as well so I can test out the RNG, which should have the same level across all 3 box types.

Ishmel
06-10-2014, 01:15 AM
One week before the F2P patch I did a little experiment with the lockboxes. I had 4mil scrip so I opened lockboxes of one variety, selling everything but the orange drops, until my total scrip was 1mil scrip less than what i started with. I began with T4 lockboxes, then T3 and lastly T2.

My personal conclusion was that, if your aim is getting oranges, you would get as many oranges from T2 lockboxes as you would from T4 lockboxes, given the same amount of scrip/ark salvage spent. As the cost to buy 8 T2 lockboxes equals the cost of one T4 lockbox the variance would also be less of a factor using T2 lockboxes.

I think the only thing that would make me go back to buying T4 lockboxes would be if there were any evidence provided that indicated that oranges from T4 lockboxes were "better" than oranges from T2 lockboxes, but I sincerely doubt that that would be the case.

BJWyler
06-10-2014, 04:03 AM
I have found the AF chances to be higher at shondus as well. Been pulling from there mostly. I hope Etaew takes your data and puts it on his site when all is said and done.

OK, so T2's are supposed to still be dropping AF. I haven't had one drop yet in over a week at least. I haven't gone to Shondu's to get the boxes, so I'll start trying that to see if it makes a difference.

Whisky Tango
06-10-2014, 06:26 AM
OK, so T2's are supposed to still be dropping AF. I haven't had one drop yet in over a week at least. I haven't gone to Shondu's to get the boxes, so I'll start trying that to see if it makes a difference.

I am receiving AF from Tier 2 boxes.

Etaew
06-10-2014, 06:39 AM
Okay, the basics of the form are up, I want to have a look at a few sample entries, so could anyone who has an account on DD please try and submit a form for the lockbox?

http://www.defiancedata.com/lockbox.php?id=2 DO NOT DO A FULL DATA ENTRY ON THIS I WILL WIPE IT BEFORE I LAUNCH

I know that Pseudo wanted to allow people to submit more data, I might do an advanced version of this form tracking bonuses and nano effects which means I could take away some of the extra fields for the rest of us Legendary % only seekers.

TODO:
- Prevent people from entering multiple stuff, .e.g. picking weapon AND shield in a single roll
- Output the results
- Paginate your own entries
- Allow deletion of mistakes

Whisky Tango
06-10-2014, 06:42 AM
Okay, the basics of the form are up, I want to have a look at a few sample entries, so could anyone who has an account on DD please try and submit a form for the lockbox?

http://www.defiancedata.com/lockbox.php?id=2 DO NOT DO A FULL DATA ENTRY ON THIS I WILL WIPE IT BEFORE I LAUNCH

I know that Pseudo wanted to allow people to submit more data, I might do an advanced version of this form tracking bonuses and nano effects which means I could take away some of the extra fields for the rest of us Legendary % only seekers.

TODO:
- Prevent people from entering multiple stuff, .e.g. picking weapon AND shield in a single roll
- Output the results
- Paginate your own entries
- Allow deletion of mistakes

I sent one to you.

Etaew
06-10-2014, 06:44 AM
I sent one to you.

Thank you, and highlighted something else I need to force or have a default, you didn't enter a grenade rarity :D

N3gativeCr33p
06-10-2014, 06:46 AM
OK, so T2's are supposed to still be dropping AF. I haven't had one drop yet in over a week at least. I haven't gone to Shondu's to get the boxes, so I'll start trying that to see if it makes a difference.

There's definitely AF still dropping from T2 lockboxes over on the NA/360 server... verified that last night/yesterday afternoon.

If I remember correctly, all of it might have dropped for me over at Bug N Chug... I was having zero luck anywhere else that I tried.

Whisky Tango
06-10-2014, 06:47 AM
Thank you, and highlighted something else I need to force or have a default, you didn't enter a grenade rarity :D

I sent another one.

PseudoCool
06-10-2014, 07:15 AM
@Et - Check your forum notifications bud :)

Zugo
06-10-2014, 07:26 AM
Hi guys,
I love seeing results from stuff like this. Here's another idea for collecting data from boxes. Have 10 people buy 10 tier2 boxes from the same vendor at the same time, record that data and then repeat. That would get you 1000 boxes opened fairly quickly and not rely on one person doing all the work.

Etaew
06-10-2014, 07:32 AM
I sent another one.

Thanks, I had a check and then realised I didn't have the energy to write proper validation and force people to choose the right fields tonight. It's up to the users common sense, I've added some text warnings and I might go back around later and adjust the form if people have difficulty understanding it.

http://www.defiancedata.com/lockboxes.php (please don't add stuff to other lockboxes at the moment, just the main tiers)

The lockboxes (of all tiers) are now open for people to submit data to it, as the data comes in I will make the statistics more presentable, and if you enter a lot of info I'll be forced to write pagination for viewing your own contributions.

Any mistakes you make you can delete with the [x] in your own or recent submissions.

Zugo
06-10-2014, 07:39 AM
http://www.defiancedata.com/lockboxes.php (please don't add stuff to other lockboxes at the moment, just the main tiers)

The lockboxes (of all tiers) are now open for people to submit data to it, as the data comes in I will make the statistics more presentable, and if you enter a lot of info I'll be forced to write pagination for viewing your own contributions.

Any mistakes you make you can delete with the [x] in your own or recent submissions.

Awesome thanks, Can you filter the vendor items out of the Tier2 box selection? I ask because for those of us on console we will most likely use smart phones or tablets to enter data.

Etaew
06-10-2014, 07:45 AM
Awesome thanks, Can you filter the vendor items out of the Tier2 box selection? I ask because for those of us on console we will most likely use smart phones or tablets to enter data.

Honestly, part of this is to help me figure out what items drop from the boxes, I have a big list of models but it has no context. I'm not sure if any items are vendor exclusive? I can probably remove some DLC specific ones, but again I just have a big list. I never thought to add DLC filters so I'd have to go through the entire list and flag them #pain.

Whisky Tango
06-10-2014, 07:55 AM
Eta - It is not allowing me to delete my data entry. For some reason it double posted my last one.

Etaew
06-10-2014, 08:03 AM
Eta - It is not allowing me to delete my data entry. For some reason it double posted my last one.

Ah, that makes sense it didn't know who the author was after you pressed that button. As a mod it just lets me do what I want so I didn't test it from others perspective. It should work now?

Whisky Tango
06-10-2014, 08:18 AM
Ah, that makes sense it didn't know who the author was after you pressed that button. As a mod it just lets me do what I want so I didn't test it from others perspective. It should work now?

Works like a champ.

Etaew
06-10-2014, 08:32 AM
Works like a champ.

Glad to hear it, and with 25 boxes opened we hit our first Legendary. Although real numbers wont begin to appear until we have hundreds if not thousands of boxes opened.

Keeper Riff
06-10-2014, 08:34 AM
Then it would not be a random number generator if it is based on any coordinates or player data.There's no such thing as random number generator per se. The only thing that is random is the query's timestamp. The lower bits of a timestamp (in microseconds or processor cycles) are actually used to calculate the so-called "random" number. So when you need, say, a 1/8 success ratio, you just check if the remainder on dividing the random number by 8 is equal to zero. The problem is that the CPU works by the same clock as the RNG itself. So if the CPU processes some more important operation every 8 cycles, you'll never get your random number divisible by 8 because the query which came at 8th cycle will be postponed. Of course, this can be remedied by sending RNG queries to some other device which has its own timer, not synchronized with the CPU which issues the query, but devs usually don't bother with this. Instead, they include some quasi-random values like player's coordinates, player's ID, player's gear IDs, player's level and so on. Those values are technically random from server's perspective, but they are not from player's. This actually can be easily remedied too by using some other character's data who was doing the same before the current character, but usually they don't bother with such a complex system. Add to this the desire to control people's behavior and interests by tweaking the rewards' rate for different actions and we get what we usually get in MMO lucky/unlucky days, places, characters, accounts and so on.

PseudoCool
06-10-2014, 08:35 AM
Glad to hear it, and with 25 boxes opened we hit our first Legendary. Although real numbers wont begin to appear until we have hundreds if not thousands of boxes opened.

And this right here is where I find an issue. I've opened an ungodly amount of boxes on PC-NA, and I only ever get OJ's from Tier 4's. This is why the large sample size is needed from multiple people to seriously test and brutalize the RNG.

Whisky Tango
06-10-2014, 08:36 AM
Glad to hear it, and with 25 boxes opened we hit our first Legendary. Although real numbers wont begin to appear until we have hundreds if not thousands of boxes opened.

Nice. Are you going to make it so we can see a compiled list of things that were pulled? For example, if you pressed the"1" under "Legendary" it would show you a list of all those items?

Etaew
06-10-2014, 08:37 AM
And this right here is where I find an issue. I've opened an ungodly amount of boxes on PC-NA, and I only ever get OJ's from Tier 4's. This is why the large sample size is needed from multiple people to seriously test and brutalize the RNG.
Potentially with the power of DBs we could split results by user, and find lucky and unlucky people :p

Etaew
06-10-2014, 08:37 AM
Nice. Are you going to make it so we can see a compiled list of things that were pulled? For example, if you pressed the"1" under "Legendary" it would show you a list of all those items?

Yeah it can totally support that functionality, I need a motivation stick waved for that part though.

Whisky Tango
06-10-2014, 08:40 AM
Yeah it can totally support that functionality, I need a motivation stick waved for that part though.

If you need any assistance let me know.

Whisky Tango
06-10-2014, 09:14 AM
27th box of the data and got a Legendary Hatch Nade.

Z0mb1E
06-10-2014, 09:46 AM
Thanks, I had a check and then realised I didn't have the energy to write proper validation and force people to choose the right fields tonight. It's up to the users common sense, I've added some text warnings and I might go back around later and adjust the form if people have difficulty understanding it.

http://www.defiancedata.com/lockboxes.php (please don't add stuff to other lockboxes at the moment, just the main tiers)

The lockboxes (of all tiers) are now open for people to submit data to it, as the data comes in I will make the statistics more presentable, and if you enter a lot of info I'll be forced to write pagination for viewing your own contributions.

Any mistakes you make you can delete with the [x] in your own or recent submissions.

Maybe for now we should just go with easy categorization (Box type purchased) (item 1 type) (item 1 rarity) (item 2 type) (item 2 rarity) (item 3 type) (item 3 rarity) (item 4 type) (item 4 type rarity) (arkforge *can be null or 0*) (stims/charges *can be null or 0*)

And for item types we might want to simplify the data collection/entry process by listing item types as
Assault Rifle
Sub Machine Gun
Light Machine Gun
Pump Shotgun
Sawed off Shotgun
.....ETC

This will remove a level of granularity from the reporting but should make data entry easier and give you a much smaller set of data to need to validate. Also we should be able to munge all of the data from all tier boxes into one collection. I'll take a look at your sheet tonight and see if I can come up with something.

Extreme Rugburn
06-10-2014, 10:26 AM
I too have bee buying T2 boxes, although I havent been tracking everything I know I have opened about 50 the past two days, mostly from Overpass. I have received one orange, but only gotten 80 AF. I will definately try Shondus since everyone seems to have better luck there.

N3gativeCr33p
06-10-2014, 10:29 AM
I will definately try Shondus since everyone seems to have better luck there.

FWIW... I had zero "RNG luck" with T2 boxes over at Shondu's last night, and Bug N Chug seemed to be slightly luckier for my Irath.

Etaew
06-10-2014, 01:54 PM
What we could really do is having Trick or Phantasie provide us with a breakdown of the other tiers like they did for T4: http://www.defiancedata.com/page.php?id=102

(and yes It's been on a request I've sent off ages ago)

Odessa
06-10-2014, 01:57 PM
I figured that I'd ask here instead of my Claims Items thread... anyone know if the autobreakdown is in Defiance days VS real time? I'd love to help but the idea of breaking down over 350 grenades, etc... has given me pause. Great, painful pause.

Etaew
06-10-2014, 01:58 PM
I figured that I'd ask here instead of my Claims Items thread... anyone know if the autobreakdown is in Defiance days VS real time? I'd love to help but the idea of breaking down over 350 grenades, etc... has given me pause. Great, painful pause.

Real time afaik

Whisky Tango
06-10-2014, 08:56 PM
Great work on the site Etaew. Are you going to be promoting this data compilation somewhere else on the forums? Would love to see more people contribute.

Etaew
06-11-2014, 12:29 AM
Great work on the site Etaew. Are you going to be promoting this data compilation somewhere else on the forums? Would love to see more people contribute.

I can probably attach it to the sig and make a DD post about it, but there are very few people who actually want to do this kind of stuff, we are rare :p

Etaew
06-11-2014, 05:03 AM
UPDATE: The summary now shows some nice percentages for the rolls.

PseudoCool
06-11-2014, 06:37 AM
Amazing...

276 boxes into the 1000 box run, and I FINALLY pull a OJ from a T2.. VBI LM-12 with decent enough rolls to keep, but no nano. And even more amazing.. I got it at Bloodbath. So.. for those of you pulling 2 or 3 OJ's in a dozen boxes, I'm still jealous..lol

Whisky Tango
06-11-2014, 07:32 AM
Eta - In the breakdown chart it shows the number of times AF was pulled. Can you put the accumulated number next to it. For example: 1 (100 AF)

Etaew
06-11-2014, 10:38 AM
Eta - In the breakdown chart it shows the number of times AF was pulled. Can you put the accumulated number next to it. For example: 1 (100 AF)

Done, is that what you meant?

Arkforge
15 / 83 (18.07%)
20 Arkforge: 11, 40 Arkforge: 2, 50 Arkforge: 1, 100 Arkforge: 1,

That line looks strange, could make that more readable yes

Whisky Tango
06-11-2014, 10:46 AM
Perfect. One more thing, can you take the "View your submitted data" link away from submit button? Sometimes on my phone I hit it on accident and it clears the form.

Etaew
06-11-2014, 10:57 AM
Perfect. One more thing, can you take the "View your submitted data" link away from submit button? Sometimes on my phone I hit it on accident and it clears the form.

Okay, I've split them all out into separate tabs now.

crash test dummie
06-11-2014, 10:59 AM
Looking good Etaew.

I've already started adding some of my own pulls. If the server would stay up long enough fo rme to get more keys, will add more data. :)

Etaew
06-11-2014, 11:01 AM
I want to double check what people are seeing, when I pull arkforge in the log it lists the amount twice. For example I see +20, some other items and another +20. I record this as 40 Arkforge. What is everyone else doing for this?

PseudoCool
06-11-2014, 11:06 AM
I'm only recording it once per box pulled, since that's how you'll get it. Otherwise, your results are going to show twice as much arkforge as you really received. That is if I'm understanding your post correctly.

Odessa
06-11-2014, 11:14 AM
I am still trying to go through all my consumables, but I can say that opening 10 boxes this morning (6:30amish) at Last Chance I managed to pull a nice Assault Rife and roughly 80arkforge. Totally just tossing this out for the general info as I did not count how many greens/blues/purples and the enviable barrage of MOAR grenades.

Whisky Tango
06-11-2014, 11:18 AM
I want to double check what people are seeing, when I pull arkforge in the log it lists the amount twice. For example I see +20, some other items and another +20. I record this as 40 Arkforge. What is everyone else doing for this?

I put whatever it states when I open the box. It gives you the total.

Z0mb1E
06-11-2014, 11:19 AM
I am still trying to go through all my consumables, but I can say that opening 10 boxes this morning (6:30amish) at Last Chance I managed to pull a nice Assault Rife and roughly 80arkforge. Totally just tossing this out for the general info as I did not count how many greens/blues/purples and the enviable barrage of MOAR grenades.

In order to help Etaew out however, we are going to need as many people as possible to log their box opens. Each individual one or we can't really build a reporting mechanism.

Etaew
06-11-2014, 11:20 AM
I put whatever it states when I open the box. It gives you the total.

Also want to add you have been adding loads, thanks for this. Can you double check a recent submission of yours though. It looks like a duplicate.

I should put a leaderboard for us crazy ones, to see who contributes the most :p

Whisky Tango
06-11-2014, 11:22 AM
Also want to add you have been adding loads, thanks for this. Can you double check a recent submission of yours though. It looks like a duplicate.

I should put a leaderboard for us crazy ones, to see who contributes the most :p

Nope, I opened 2 boxes back-to-back that had the same 3 items in it, haha. A leaderboard would be fun. Some of mine did not go in because of the link problem.

Etaew
06-11-2014, 11:24 AM
Nope, I opened 2 boxes back-to-back that had the same 3 items in it, haha.

That worries me, it seems the time is an element in the RNG @PseudoCool?

Z0mb1E
06-11-2014, 11:27 AM
That worries me, it seems the time is an element in the RNG @PseudoCool?

I have the same suspicion and the system clocks are a terrible place to generate a "random number". But this could give us some insights as to whether or not there are better times of night/day, a "sweet spot" in the RNG if you will.

Etaew
06-11-2014, 11:28 AM
I have the same suspicion and the system clocks are a terrible place to generate a "random number". But this could give us some insights as to whether or not there are better times of night/day, a "sweet spot" in the RNG if you will.
It also means that essentially most of the data we are collecting doesn't mean that much :(

Whisky Tango
06-11-2014, 11:30 AM
That worries me, it seems the time is an element in the RNG @PseudoCool?

It is possible that it is not based on time, but activity. Non-peak hours might not recieve good results because of a lack of people opening boxes to roll-over the odds. However, on peak times when more people are opening boxes the roll-over rate is better.

maverick07
06-11-2014, 11:32 AM
I want to double check what people are seeing, when I pull arkforge in the log it lists the amount twice. For example I see +20, some other items and another +20. I record this as 40 Arkforge. What is everyone else doing for this?

It always does that. Say if you get 50 Arkforge out of a T2, you will see a +50 above the other items you got in the lockbox and you will see a +50 below it, it shows up twice.

Z0mb1E
06-11-2014, 11:37 AM
It is possible that it is not based on time, but activity. Non-peak hours might not recieve good results because of a lack of people opening boxes to roll-over the odds. However, on peak times when more people are opening boxes the roll-over rate is better.

This is a probability as well, but we need data to support it. Everyone please tell your friends to start logging this on Defiance Data please.

Bentu
06-11-2014, 11:38 AM
I haven't read the thread (sorry) but just incase it hasn't been mentioned, you should check that all your grenades are full prior to buying a box, if you do get an oj grenade it will just fill it.

Whisky Tango
06-11-2014, 11:39 AM
I haven't read the thread (sorry) but just incase it hasn't been mentioned, you should check that all your grenades are full prior to buying a box, if you do get an oj grenade it will just fill it.

That is off-topic.

Etaew
06-11-2014, 11:41 AM
It always does that. Say if you get 50 Arkforge out of a T2, you will see a +50 above the other items you got in the lockbox and you will see a +50 below it, it shows up twice.

Oh really? So I should actually go and half all my input values? :)

Etaew
06-11-2014, 11:42 AM
A leaderboard would be fun.

Okay, done. Let the competition start :p http://www.defiancedata.com/lockbox.php?id=2&submitted

maverick07
06-11-2014, 11:45 AM
Oh really? So I should actually go and half all my input values? :)

If you have been recording it that way yes :). I thought I was getting them both also at first but I found out that was how it was coming out in the chat feed after getting one box and seeing two numbers.

Whisky Tango
06-11-2014, 11:45 AM
Oh really? So I should actually go and half all my input values? :)

Yes, what I do is place the AF data in right when it pops up after opening it. That will give you the total amount. On PS3 anyway.

TTOWNZ DIRTIEST
06-11-2014, 11:45 AM
#1 thing to do when buying TIER 2 's is buy them back to back as fast as u possibly can....this seems to always works for me and I have been recording at least 2 oj's a day and loads of ARKFORGE.....even tho lately since the busted last few patches kindda killed it...ARKFORGE is very few and far in-between!!!

Etaew
06-11-2014, 11:48 AM
If you have been recording it that way yes :). I thought I was getting them both also at first but I found out that was how it was coming out in the chat feed after getting one box and seeing two numbers.

Thanks for the confirmation, the list now looks more presentable.

With 14 Arkforge drops recorded from 83 boxes opened so far, 12 of them have been for 20 Arkforge and 2 of them have been for 50 Arkforge.

:D

Whisky Tango
06-11-2014, 11:51 AM
Has a developer been asked about the RNG of lockboxes?

Bentu
06-11-2014, 11:51 AM
That is off-topic.

It would be except for the fact that it doesn't always show up as a reward when it just fills your quota.

Whisky Tango
06-11-2014, 11:54 AM
It would be except for the fact that it doesn't always show up as a reward when it just fills your quota.

Yes, it pops up as a reward regardless of if the nades are full or not. If they are not full it pops up when you open it. If they are full it goes to your claimable items and tells you the inventory are full.

Etaew
06-11-2014, 11:54 AM
Has a developer been asked about the RNG of lockboxes?

I don't think so, I don't have any direct line of enquiry to them, I go via Kiwi for the most part and she seems pretty busy. I've previously asked about general rules for the lockboxes, such as what types of weapons they pull from etc but I doubt I'd get any kind of response on this since it directly affects the end-game and retention.

Bentu
06-11-2014, 12:12 PM
Yes, it pops up as a reward regardless of if the nades are full or not. If they are not full it pops up when you open it. If they are full it goes to your claimable items and tells you the inventory are full.

Agreed, thats how it should work but from time to time I only get the Kerr ching as I purchase the box. No rewards pop up and it doesn't show in the rewards screen.
Just trying to be helpful.

Odessa
06-11-2014, 12:19 PM
In order to help Etaew out however, we are going to need as many people as possible to log their box opens. Each individual one or we can't really build a reporting mechanism.

I know. I spoke with Etaew some about it yesterday. Until I can clear out all the consumables it won't be easy to catch what is received. I just figured it might at least help somewhat with the original post about OJ drops per box count.


Agreed, thats how it should work but from time to time I only get the Kerr ching as I purchase the box. No rewards pop up and it doesn't show in the rewards screen.
Just trying to be helpful.

That's what happens to me from time to time. I'll buy one box and it just takes everything and I have to go in to see what I got. Good call on the Legendary... but that makes me concerned that it would be wasted if I am not full. Shame since I have different grenades per loadout and don't think to refill all.

Whisky Tango
06-11-2014, 12:30 PM
I just bought roughly 10 boxes when there was not a bunch of people on, because of server coming up. I didn't get much.

dramaQkarri
06-11-2014, 12:40 PM
Has a developer been asked about the RNG of lockboxes?

I'd like to know the % RNG that lockboxes are supposed to be according to The Company too.

To answer your question, not exactly, but note PhantasieTrion's post #83 in the thread link below:

http://forums.defiance.com/showthread.php?160708-p****d-off-at-ridiculous-RNG/page9

That thread is about the 7th Legion RNG and they say "working as intended". That discussion led to this exciting little project here!

I do the words and let others do the math. Seriously I want to contribute but between bad browser here at work and PC time at home I have yet to compile anything of note.

N3gativeCr33p
06-11-2014, 12:43 PM
Agreed, thats how it should work but from time to time I only get the Kerr ching as I purchase the box. No rewards pop up and it doesn't show in the rewards screen.

Yeah, I noticed the same thing happened to me a few times over the weekend. Now I'm relieved to hear that it's not just a "me" problem.



Just trying to be helpful.

You're one of the more helpful people that ever I've met while playing this game. :)

PseudoCool
06-11-2014, 02:36 PM
See.. the problem your having, I was having as well.

Simple solution:
Make a spread sheet
OPEN one box at a time with a CLEAR inventory (nothing new in it)
Wait til the end of the box opening (this is where the extras pop at)
Put in the extras FIRST
Then open your inventory
Set it for display from EGO LEVEL Highest to Lowest (just click where it says EGO until you've got your two new items at the top)
Then fill in the spread sheet

Sounds like a lot of work, and a the beginning it's pretty tedius. at 350+ boxes, I'm doing 12 boxes per vendor, and getting them done in about 5 minutes worth of work on the spread sheet. This also allows me to put in the extra information that I'll be looking at as well.

And that being said.. if your after Arkforge, Shondu's is STILL the best return from my results - netting 270 Ark forge, 15 stims, and 4 grenades (2 purple, 2 blue) in 24 boxes so far from that vendor. No other vendor (so far) comes close to those extras.

Etaew
06-11-2014, 02:39 PM
And that being said.. if your after Arkforge, Shondu's is STILL the best return from my results - netting 270 Ark forge, 15 stims, and 4 grenades (2 purple, 2 blue) in 24 boxes so far from that vendor. No other vendor (so far) comes close to those extras.

Even though I'm not tracking location anymore, 4/5 of the lockboxes I pulled in my last test at Shondu's had Arkforge in them :o

Anyway now I've made everyones contributions visible: http://www.defiancedata.com/lockbox.php?id=2&submitted can go back through and look at them. I can add more filters later to show which models dropped most commonly etc.

Z0mb1E
06-11-2014, 02:42 PM
I'd like to know the % RNG that lockboxes are supposed to be according to The Company too.

To answer your question, not exactly, but note PhantasieTrion's post #83 in the thread link below:

http://forums.defiance.com/showthread.php?160708-p****d-off-at-ridiculous-RNG/page9

That thread is about the 7th Legion RNG and they say "working as intended". That discussion led to this exciting little project here!

I do the words and let others do the math. Seriously I want to contribute but between bad browser here at work and PC time at home I have yet to compile anything of note.

Honestly even if someone wanted to log all of their entries into a spreadsheet and then mail that off, we could do the data entry portion for you.

Odessa
06-11-2014, 02:44 PM
See.. the problem your having, I was having as well.

Simple solution:
Make a spread sheet
OPEN one box at a time with a CLEAR inventory (nothing new in it)
Wait til the end of the box opening (this is where the extras pop at)
Put in the extras FIRST
Then open your inventory
Set it for display from EGO LEVEL Highest to Lowest (just click where it says EGO until you've got your two new items at the top)
Then fill in the spread sheet

Sounds like a lot of work, and a the beginning it's pretty tedius. at 350+ boxes, I'm doing 12 boxes per vendor, and getting them done in about 5 minutes worth of work on the spread sheet. This also allows me to put in the extra information that I'll be looking at as well.

And that being said.. if your after Arkforge, Shondu's is STILL the best return from my results - netting 270 Ark forge, 15 stims, and 4 grenades (2 purple, 2 blue) in 24 boxes so far from that vendor. No other vendor (so far) comes close to those extras.

Do you make sure all your grenades are full? My main concern is the mentioning of Grenades refilling instead of placing them in the Claimed Items, especially since I've gotten all but one of my legendary grenades from the Tier 2 box. Since it does not always display the item, there's a chance people are using up legendary grenades as refills.

Z0mb1E
06-11-2014, 02:44 PM
Okay, done. Let the competition start :p http://www.defiancedata.com/lockbox.php?id=2&submitted

Wait we are generating a leaderboard for data entry?

Etaew
06-11-2014, 02:46 PM
Wait we are generating a leaderboard for data entry?

Yeah, it could be private so that I could get a better handle on who is submitting what. But it's nice to compare everything right? :p motivates us to grab some more.

Z0mb1E
06-11-2014, 03:09 PM
Thanks, I had a check and then realised I didn't have the energy to write proper validation and force people to choose the right fields tonight. It's up to the users common sense, I've added some text warnings and I might go back around later and adjust the form if people have difficulty understanding it.

http://www.defiancedata.com/lockboxes.php (please don't add stuff to other lockboxes at the moment, just the main tiers)

The lockboxes (of all tiers) are now open for people to submit data to it, as the data comes in I will make the statistics more presentable, and if you enter a lot of info I'll be forced to write pagination for viewing your own contributions.

Any mistakes you make you can delete with the [x] in your own or recent submissions.

Going to the specified URL doesn't seem to bring up the form anymore, only the analysis

Etaew
06-11-2014, 03:34 PM
Going to the specified URL doesn't seem to bring up the form anymore, only the analysis

Yeah you have to be logged in with a DD account, and you will see a link at the top for "Contribute Data". The pages were getting a bit crowded so I split them into tabs.

Whisky Tango
06-11-2014, 03:52 PM
Do you make sure all your grenades are full? My main concern is the mentioning of Grenades refilling instead of placing them in the Claimed Items, especially since I've gotten all but one of my legendary grenades from the Tier 2 box. Since it does not always display the item, there's a chance people are using up legendary grenades as refills.

If your Nades are full they will go into your claimed items. If the bonus spot doesn't show up, when it is displaying the items, then this was the case. If it does pop-up this means it filled in your current inventory. It is very easy to distinguish between this. I am refering to to PS3 but I can't imagine it being different on XBox.

Odessa
06-11-2014, 03:58 PM
If your Nades are full they will go into your claimed items. If the bonus spot doesn't show up, when it is displaying the items, then this was the case. If it does pop-up this means it filled in your current inventory. It is very easy to distinguish between this. I am refering to to PS3 but I can't imagine it being different on XBox.

So if I get OJ Hatching Grenades, but only have 4 / 5 (not sure if equipped on current loadout matters VS another loadout), then the OJ Grenades will replace the one, correct? I am actually selecting a box and not getting any pop up, just the removal of keys, etc... It's random when it happens. This would be important not only for this project but for anyone opening boxes.

Hopefully I can clear mine out and start to help with the information either today or tomorrow. You still need info, correct?

Whisky Tango
06-11-2014, 04:01 PM
So if I get OJ Hatching Grenades, but only have 4 / 5 (not sure if equipped on current loadout matters VS another loadout), then the OJ Grenades will replace the one, correct? I am actually selecting a box and not getting any pop up, just the removal of keys, etc... It's random when it happens. This would be important not only for this project but for anyone opening boxes.

Hopefully I can clear mine out and start to help with the information either today or tomorrow. You still need info, correct?

If you don't get a pop-up on the consumable item roll it means it entered your claimable items. Yes, we need more people entering data.

PseudoCool
06-11-2014, 04:03 PM
Do you make sure all your grenades are full? My main concern is the mentioning of Grenades refilling instead of placing them in the Claimed Items, especially since I've gotten all but one of my legendary grenades from the Tier 2 box. Since it does not always display the item, there's a chance people are using up legendary grenades as refills.

Ok... make sure your grenades are FULL.

As it pops up on the screen, the "extras".. ie grenades, stims, spikes, and arkforge all pop up LAST. Enter those into the spread sheet FIRST as they pop up, since you won't see them in your inventory, they'll only pop up as "sent to claim items" after your done. THis may be more difficult to do since your using two platforms, I have a dual screen PC, so it's easier to switch over.

PTR47
06-11-2014, 09:24 PM
Yes, we need more people entering data.

I'm starting to populate data lists and I'm also validating DD; I'll be over there as time permits. I'm expecting to populate in bursts.

PseudoCool
06-12-2014, 08:46 AM
I'm starting to populate data lists and I'm also validating DD; I'll be over there as time permits. I'm expecting to populate in bursts.

I've decided to finish my own 1000 boxes first (as was the original intention of this thread).. and then I'll just write a simple population script to populate the data over in chunks to the DD site to add on. After of course, Etaew and I chat and get his numbers so we can compare them seperately to see how it's working and how the two lists compare. Then I'll add mine. Since I'm only on box 400 or so, it'll be awhile I'm sure.

Etaew
06-12-2014, 08:51 AM
as was the original intention of this thread

Haha yeah, I totally hijacked it sorry. Good visibility though ;)

PseudoCool
06-12-2014, 09:04 AM
Haha yeah, I totally hijacked it sorry. Good visibility though ;)

You Hijacked a thread? Nooo.. say it isn't so! *Grins Evily* It's all good tho Etaew.. we're working towards the same end result, and the visibility you've provided with your posts and Defiance Data have gotten even more people involved who may not have been in the first place.

And.. just an FYI.. I got my first orange grenade today.. fragger no less.. at box 384.. this makes 3 OJ's so far, one weapon, one crap shield, and a grenade. Somehow, I'm hoping beyond hope that the loot tables for RNG aren't too large that 1000 boxes won't give us a good base line. Especially since I'm already noticing a repeat on weapon synergies and bonus rolls, which are far greater in occurance than specific weapons (like birdshots for example).

PseudoCool
06-12-2014, 01:39 PM
*** UPDATE 1.5 ***

Ok.. just got done doing a 3rd run on each of the vendors, for a total of 480 T2's opened so far.

Of them.. I can emphatically say this:

DO NOT USE "the Fork" for your boxes. 3 runs of T2's, the only oj I've pulled from it so far is a 5 bio grenade orange (which is nice), only 2 purples (both where horrible across the board), and NO ARKFORGE. This far exceeds the lameness of any other vendor in the game. Consider this your PSA :)

badassdad1234
06-12-2014, 05:07 PM
I know how to get 1,000 extra ark forge...after you buy the DLC that gives you 1000 ark forge log on to the European server and create a character. You don't even have to play the new character. Log off and back on the American server. It will be in your store account along with all the other loot you got when you bought any DLC.

PseudoCool
06-12-2014, 05:12 PM
I know how to get 1,000 extra ark forge...after you buy the DLC that gives you 1000 ark forge log on to the European server and create a character. You don't even have to play the new character. Log off and back on the American server. It will be in your store account along with all the other loot you got when you bought any DLC.

Sounds like something that's NOT working as intended.

Whisky Tango
06-12-2014, 09:32 PM
I know how to get 1,000 extra ark forge...after you buy the DLC that gives you 1000 ark forge log on to the European server and create a character. You don't even have to play the new character. Log off and back on the American server. It will be in your store account along with all the other loot you got when you bought any DLC.

:facepalm...

Dukhat
06-12-2014, 09:46 PM
So it would seem that T2 boxes are not worth it at all..
Funny thing is though - I opened about 20 boxes from the store without even getting 1 Orange/Legendary item..

Then spontaneously I opened a T3 box with resources, and got 2 in a row -__-

Z0mb1E
06-13-2014, 01:23 PM
So it would seem that T2 boxes are not worth it at all..
Funny thing is though - I opened about 20 boxes from the store without even getting 1 Orange/Legendary item..

Then spontaneously I opened a T3 box with resources, and got 2 in a row -__-

T2 Boxes are definitely worth it if you're in it for the Arkforge.

I have some extra time tonight going to try to crack a couple hundred T2's.

PseudoCool
06-13-2014, 01:45 PM
So it would seem that T2 boxes are not worth it at all..
Funny thing is though - I opened about 20 boxes from the store without even getting 1 Orange/Legendary item..

Then spontaneously I opened a T3 box with resources, and got 2 in a row -__-

this is why we're doing the lock box project.. not only to test RNG for oranges, but to see how the drop rates for arkforge and other extra items are (grenades, stims, and spikes all come as "extra rolls" after your two items from the box). So far, it's doing well on the arkforge, I'd say on average one out of 7 boxes gives me arkforge. I can't say the same for orange items of any variation however. Now mind you, I'm not even close to done with the testing for this, call that a "preliminary guestimation"

PTR47
06-14-2014, 09:22 PM
I was running with the impression that Whiskey Tango's suggestion that you get a Spike or a Stim or Arkforge as a bonus was correct. Unfortunately, it looks like this is not true; which nullifies my currently developed data set. If you don't get a Spike or a Stim, you will get arkforge... but it looks like getting a spike or a stim doesn't mean you don't also get arkforge.

Should I enter my 40 boxes into the database, or should I start over?

PseudoCool
06-14-2014, 09:25 PM
I was running with the impression that Whiskey Tango's suggestion that you get a Spike or a Stim or Arkforge as a bonus was correct. Unfortunately, it looks like this is not true; which nullifies my currently developed data set. If you don't get a Spike or a Stim, you will get arkforge... but it looks like getting a spike or a stim doesn't mean you don't also get arkforge.

Correct. Grenades are also included in the "extras".. I've gotten multiple hits with both arkforge or grenades AND a spike or stim, along with the standard 2 weapons from T2 boxes. It's why I'm not including the spikes or stims in my set, they drop pretty frequently (roughly every other box).

OttawaREDBLACKS
06-14-2014, 09:28 PM
Well after 2 ark shields, bunch of legendaries and bunch of forge I think this has been a good week for t2s. I went for t3s all game to get legendaries and as an unfortunate side effect of t2s I get a bunch of crappy legendaries and an occasional good one.

PseudoCool
06-14-2014, 09:32 PM
Well after 2 ark shields, bunch of legendaries and bunch of forge I think this has been a good week for t2s. I went for t3s all game to get legendaries and as an unfortunate side effect of t2s I get a bunch of crappy legendaries and an occasional good one.

Pretty much most of the legendaries I've run into on any of the tier boxes are.. meh.. at best. Then again, I don't pop oranges from every 4th or 5th T2 box either like some people. Still sitting at a total of 4 with over 400 boxes, and of them, only one was a keeper.

HybridCore
06-17-2014, 10:57 AM
Still no legendaries at a around 200 T2 crates now, none for T3 either. (TT-TT)

Is the VBI Supply Crate any good for getting a good weapon?

PseudoCool
06-17-2014, 11:35 AM
Still no legendaries at a around 200 T2 crates now, none for T3 either. (TT-TT)

Is the VBI Supply Crate any good for getting a good weapon?

No idea. And theres another thread discussing what you can get from the various crates from the bit store. I myself haven't bought any from the store. There was a "rumor" running around that drop boxes bought from the store had a higher rate of return than those purchased with in-game currency, but not sure if that's still the case, or rumor as it may be.

TTOWNZ DIRTIEST
06-17-2014, 11:39 AM
very unlucky guy...or no clan boosts going or something? I have pulled like 2 matchlocks a vbi AR,TACC,AUTO-SHOTTY and an ark shield out of last 100 T2s i GRABBED IN LAST DAY OR SO...

PseudoCool
06-17-2014, 11:44 AM
very unlucky guy...or no clan boosts going or something? I have pulled like 2 matchlocks a vbi AR,TACC,AUTO-SHOTTY and an ark shield out of last 100 T2s i GRABBED IN LAST DAY OR SO...

I never said I was lucky or unlucky. I think there's a few things going on with the RNG, and I think part of that also equates to platform. Currently, I'm testing this on PC-NA, others are testing elsewhere. So I'm glad that your popping so many orange's from your T2's, but just understand that is not the norm.

Odessa
06-17-2014, 11:50 AM
very unlucky guy...or no clan boosts going or something? I have pulled like 2 matchlocks a vbi AR,TACC,AUTO-SHOTTY and an ark shield out of last 100 T2s i GRABBED IN LAST DAY OR SO...

Do you do the quick buy or one at a time, waiting on the prompts? I was told to do one at a time to ensure the arkforge counted, which is different from my BUYBUYBUYBUYBUYBUY method. When I quick purchased, I seemed to get better weapons and more OJs. Purchasing one by one and waiting for the prompt has changed my luck to all greens... with a few blues scattered here and there.

PseudoCool
06-17-2014, 11:52 AM
Do you do the quick buy or one at a time, waiting on the prompts? I was told to do one at a time to ensure the arkforge counted, which is different from my BUYBUYBUYBUYBUYBUY method. When I quick purchased, I seemed to get better weapons and more OJs. Purchasing one by one and waiting for the prompt has changed my luck to all greens... with a few blues scattered here and there.

Maybe I'm missing it, but I don't see a "quick buy" option on PC. Probably wouldn't use it anyways since I'm doing the project and I want to see all the various drops that come out and head right to "claim items" so I can record them in my spread sheet.

Odessa
06-17-2014, 12:06 PM
Maybe I'm missing it, but I don't see a "quick buy" option on PC. Probably wouldn't use it anyways since I'm doing the project and I want to see all the various drops that come out and head right to "claim items" so I can record them in my spread sheet.

I meant to buy, click again, buy click again... Basically buying them quickly, without exiting the box. Sorry I wasn't clear enough in my explanation. I was told a few people noticed they didn't get their Arkforge when doing that so I changed to buying one, exiting and then going in to buy next one. Doing it that way, instead of staying in the purchase area, I have found my luck in OJs to be significantly less.

HybridCore
06-17-2014, 04:17 PM
No idea. And theres another thread discussing what you can get from the various crates from the bit store. I myself haven't bought any from the store. There was a "rumor" running around that drop boxes bought from the store had a higher rate of return than those purchased with in-game currency, but not sure if that's still the case, or rumor as it may be.

Not the Bit crates. I meant the ones you can buy from vendors in game w/ in game currency and reputation points. My bad.

pill2u
06-18-2014, 12:59 PM
i tend to agree with the project results, dont have exact numbers but i grab T2 boxes from all over have NEVER seen an OJ, quite a few ark boxes tho

N3gativeCr33p
06-18-2014, 01:24 PM
Do you do the quick buy or one at a time, waiting on the prompts? I was told to do one at a time to ensure the arkforge counted, which is different from my BUYBUYBUYBUYBUYBUY method. When I quick purchased, I seemed to get better weapons and more OJs. Purchasing one by one and waiting for the prompt has changed my luck to all greens... with a few blues scattered here and there.

I've always opened lockboxes in this game the same way... waiting for the prompts. While playing last night, I received a few grapes mixed in with some blues and greens - as well as a fair amount of arkforge.

Shondu's Consulate has been very very good to me as of late.

PseudoCool
06-18-2014, 02:02 PM
I've always opened lockboxes in this game the same way... waiting for the prompts. While playing last night, I received a few grapes mixed in with some blues and greens - as well as a fair amount of arkforge.

Shondu's Consulate has been very very good to me as of late.

A bit more than 1/2 way through the project now. Shondu's still has the best overall rate for arkforge drops, and so far, ALL of my orange drops (all 6 of them, including the orange frag grenade) have come from Bug-n-Chug for some reason.

N3gativeCr33p
06-18-2014, 02:09 PM
A bit more than 1/2 way through the project now. Shondu's still has the best overall rate for arkforge drops, and so far, ALL of my orange drops (all 6 of them, including the orange frag grenade) have come from Bug-n-Chug for some reason.

Not quite the same over here, my OJ drops from T2 boxes are pretty varied. If I remember correctly, the last two OJs that dropped for me were probably over at Top Notch... for some odd reason or another.

But as far as AF goes, Shondu's seems to be the place to go. 100% agreed there.

Etaew
06-18-2014, 03:14 PM
A bit more than 1/2 way through the project now. Shondu's still has the best overall rate for arkforge drops, and so far, ALL of my orange drops (all 6 of them, including the orange frag grenade) have come from Bug-n-Chug for some reason.

For others info DD is running a project in parallel for sanity checking (and public release), we are only 1/4 of the way through the project. Pseudo is a machine.

Summary is available here: http://www.defiancedata.com/lockbox.php?id=2

PseudoCool
06-18-2014, 05:38 PM
For others info DD is running a project in parallel for sanity checking (and public release), we are only 1/4 of the way through the project. Pseudo is a machine.

Summary is available here: http://www.defiancedata.com/lockbox.php?id=2

I'll be adding mine after I'm finished to the DD site data as well. At least once your finished. I'm also gathering extra data as we discussed privately so I have a more thorough breakdown of what you can expect the most of (other than just green weapons..lol ).

And.. I'm not a "machine".. I just started first :)

Etaew
06-19-2014, 05:23 AM
DD reached a milestone today, 250/1000.

Leaderboards:
- Whisky Tango (69)
- Etaew (67)
- Zombie Hunter (45)
- Keeper_Riff (38)
- yara (35)

I'd like to get to 500 before I consider moving to other lockboxes, T3 and T4. 1000 entries might be a longlong term.

Also I now display the weapons that we've found in the lockboxes so far: http://www.defiancedata.com/lockbox.php?id=2&list

Whisky Tango
06-21-2014, 06:30 AM
DD reached a milestone today, 250/1000.

Leaderboards:
- Whisky Tango (69)
- Etaew (67)
- Zombie Hunter (45)
- Keeper_Riff (38)
- yara (35)

I'd like to get to 500 before I consider moving to other lockboxes, T3 and T4. 1000 entries might be a longlong term.

Also I now display the weapons that we've found in the lockboxes so far: http://www.defiancedata.com/lockbox.php?id=2&list

Sorry Etaew, I stopped adding my stuff for a while. I will pick back up now that more people are contributing.

PseudoCool
06-21-2014, 08:29 AM
Data gathering and crunching numbers is never an easy task. With the way the drop boxes work in Defiance, it's a bit daunting, but that's why I'm doing mine solo.

I'm also about to start building up a lower level toon so I can grab boxes at the lower level as well. I'm seeing wayyyy too many repeats at 47XX ego for my liking.

Etaew
06-25-2014, 11:37 AM
Nearing my first goal on DD, 440/500 for T2 boxes, then will aim for 150 T3's.

PTR47
06-25-2014, 06:45 PM
Finished 10 from each vendor (x 13 = 130). I'll start tracking T3s.

PseudoCool
06-26-2014, 05:00 AM
Nearing my first goal on DD, 440/500 for T2 boxes, then will aim for 150 T3's.

You only doing 500 T2's on the site then? I'm slowly munching my way to 1000, and actually just rolled up an extra toon so I can test the last 400 at lower levels. At 5016, the repeats are getting a bit too obvious.

Etaew
06-26-2014, 05:07 AM
You only doing 500 T2's on the site then?

Nah, there is no end to what the system can hold, just I wanted to have some base data for each of the lockboxes and then go back and top up others. I've been highlighting projects and progress on the DD sidebar and can adjust them at any time.

PseudoCool
06-26-2014, 05:16 AM
Nah, there is no end to what the system can hold, just I wanted to have some base data for each of the lockboxes and then go back and top up others. I've been highlighting projects and progress on the DD sidebar and can adjust them at any time.

Cool.. as soon as I hit 1k, we'll have to chat more directly and compare numbers and stats. After that, I'll send you the info I've got so you can parse it directly into the DD information.

Etaew
06-28-2014, 02:07 PM
At 500 T2's, people can still add to them anytime they want. The more results, the more accurate (? - depending on Pseudo's RNG determination) the chances will be.

Collecting 175 T3 boxes now, I imagine this will go slower because of the keys required.

PTR47
06-28-2014, 08:37 PM
Shouldn't be horrible. 500x8/24=~166.