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View Full Version : Just saying random aint so



Sevrin
06-22-2014, 11:07 AM
OK. Just came back to the game. Had lots of resources from previous play. And was jazzed to see that you can actually buy purple mods! So I bought a bunch of Epic Mod Hoards from VBI vendor (which provides four purple mods). Not sure exactly, but prolly about 15 purchases (so let's just call it 60 mods). Of those I bought, there were zero SMG/LMG/AR mods and zero BMG mods. There were three sniper IV scopes, three pistol IV Scopes, and three launcher IV sights. So I ask you, what are the random odds of that? Fair warning!

YahootsMagoondi
06-22-2014, 11:38 AM
about the same chance as opening one and getting four ar mods...happened to me yesterday. kinda like a slot machine...

Griffix8
06-22-2014, 11:59 AM
Its completely random. I currently have more sniper and pistol mods than I have ever gotten AR mods. I also tended to get quite a few det/rocket mods. Don't worry so much about the BMG mods...most of the time you get the WORST synergy for them.

The RNG can be...difficult.

Kortacos
06-22-2014, 12:19 PM
It happens all the time i'm only use LMG's and grenade launchers but i always get shotgun, pistols and sniper mods, so i've wasted lots of resources finding a decent mod.

Griffix8
06-22-2014, 12:27 PM
It happens all the time i'm only use LMG's and grenade launchers but i always get shotgun, pistols and sniper mods, so i've wasted lots of resources finding a decent mod.
Depending on the mods you can sell them for quite a bit, especially Shotty mods. But if you're only opening boxes to get a specific mod you may have better luck looking for someone who is selling them (depending on which server and system you're using).

PTR47
06-22-2014, 01:10 PM
The chance of that hapenning is 100%. ;)

Blu
06-22-2014, 01:56 PM
It happens all the time i'm only use LMG's and grenade launchers

so all you other weapon skill lvls are maxed?

when you say you only use lmg's/det's , sooner or later you will have to use other weapons to gain ego/ pursuits/goals, or either you have them all maxed now?

3rdpig
06-22-2014, 02:54 PM
All my weapon skills are at 20 and I stopped buying epic mod hordes when I realized that 10 of every kind of RL, BMG and Infector mods were more than enough. I even bought all that were available from the Extra Life vendor last time. And I still don't have enough mods to completely mod an AR.

Yea, random.

Sevrin
06-22-2014, 04:02 PM
So here is what I think: It's not random it's basic economics. From what I've seen, the most popular weapons are some form of ARs: LMG, SMG ARs. So keep the supply low and the demand stays high -- ie, more folks spend more money (or script or whatever) trying to get their mods. Economics. Period.

Griffix8
06-22-2014, 04:14 PM
So here is what I think: It's not random it's basic economics. From what I've seen, the most popular weapons are some form of ARs: LMG, SMG ARs. So keep the supply low and the demand stays high -- ie, more folks spend more money (or script or whatever) trying to get their mods. Economics. Period.
The devs will tell you the boxes are RNG. And that the boxes fit their tables at an acceptable drop rate. People simply stop buying T4 boxes and those that do have a chance to charge a small fortune for 1 or 2 mods. It doesn't do Trion any good so I don't know why they'd make it uneven. Each mod should have and equal chance of dropping.

PseudoCool
06-22-2014, 04:52 PM
I'm in the same boat Pig is here.. I stopped buying mod boxes when I kept getting junk mods for guided missle launchers and BMG's. And not even BMG mods that I would use either.. but crap ones. Like I care if a mod helps with BMG recoil.. WHAT RECOIL? LOL

I'm not sure how the RNG with mod boxes work.. I may have to try that out at a later date after the T2 project is over. I'm not sure if I really want to however, not with how they used to work and the horrors that came along with the ever-present overly done disappointment that is mod hoarde boxes.

Odessa
06-23-2014, 09:53 AM
I think I have roughly 100 mods from opening Epic Horde Mod boxes for the various factions. It's the only thing my one character focuses on. I *think* I pulled one mod for Assassin or Stalker, but it wasn't one anyone uses. That's it. The RNG for AR/SMG/LMG mods needs to be reviewed. One mod that counts for THREE weapon types should mean it drops more. Honestly I think I'll find the Fountain of Youth before I get an AR/SMG/LMG mod for those synergies. One week to build up rep and I get zilch that I can use. I'm beyond frustrated about this. I'd like to use the synergies on all these weapons I've found/built. It makes the weapons sub par at this point.

moof
06-23-2014, 09:58 AM
i mainly stick to blue mods you can sometimes get from vendor sales (means i end up checking iron demon alot),since unfortunately alot of my weapons dont have any synergy

Riz
06-23-2014, 10:02 AM
So here is what I think: It's not random it's basic economics. From what I've seen, the most popular weapons are some form of ARs: LMG, SMG ARs. So keep the supply low and the demand stays high -- ie, more folks spend more money (or script or whatever) trying to get their mods. Economics. Period.

Good point! Been working in pubs and clubs in my younger years. Got to meet a lot of 'businessmen' that provided the slot-machines in those pubs and clubs. One once told me that 'random' was not as 'random' as you might think it is, after all the point is to make money on those machines and not lose money. So those machines got programmed such that they would pay out 70% of what was thrown in by people, but unpredictable when it would pay out. Could be nothing for one guy after spending 1000 bucks on that machine, could be 700 bucks at the next guy that throws in 5 bucks just because he has some spare change in his pocket.

Economics... Yeah, the point is to make us spent money on those boxes. Make the most popular mods hard to find no? Makes sense in a perfect way.

Manstan
06-23-2014, 10:25 AM
Economics... Yeah, the point is to make us spend money on those boxes. Make the most popular mods hard to find no? Makes sense in a perfect way.

Maybe if people react the way marketing wants them to. Problem is people usually react the other way, as in just not wasting time, keys, or skip on. If I'm not getting any mods I can use, I just quit getting the boxes, simple as that. So most of the time using this strategy just costs sales. People don't buy more to get what they want, they just quit buying.

Jasper Townsend
06-23-2014, 10:33 AM
Check out the particulars of random number generators. Sometimes the seed numbers are....samey. So you get streaks. Like 35 T2 boxes with no arkforge.

Griffix8
06-23-2014, 10:34 AM
Economics... Yeah, the point is to make us spent money on those boxes. Make the most popular mods hard to find no? Makes sense in a perfect way.
What would be the point for that to apply to lockboxes? It only makes it frustrating and doesn't give anything to Trion. Doesn't do anything for the regular players except make them not want to buy it or it lets a handful of people get tons of scrip for high charging.


Maybe if people react the way marketing wants them to. Problem is people usually react the other way, as in just not wasting time, keys, or skip on. If I'm not getting any mods I can use, I just quit getting the boxes, simple as that. So most of the time using this strategy just costs sales. People don't buy more to get what they want, they just quit buying.
This. No one wants to buy keys to open a box for a one in a million chance mod. Most either simply not get purple mods or they go buy them from the mod merchants for a few pretty pennies. Who is benefiting from having the boxes with bad RNG?

Alastar
06-23-2014, 10:37 AM
Depends on who the target market is. Your average gamer is gonna buy a few boxes and realize that they're not worth it. Now a whale on the other hand may see this as an opportunity within the player market. They drop cash money in the store ripping through boxes nobody wants to buy and Triton gets a nice lil paycheck lolol. ;)

Synther
06-23-2014, 12:13 PM
OK. Just came back to the game. Had lots of resources from previous play. And was jazzed to see that you can actually buy purple mods! So I bought a bunch of Epic Mod Hoards from VBI vendor (which provides four purple mods). Not sure exactly, but prolly about 15 purchases (so let's just call it 60 mods). Of those I bought, there were zero SMG/LMG/AR mods and zero BMG mods. There were three sniper IV scopes, three pistol IV Scopes, and three launcher IV sights. So I ask you, what are the random odds of that? Fair warning!

Nothing about what you described would imply that it isn't random. Random doesn't mean that you will get one of everything and it doesn't mean you will get what you want.

Griffix8
06-23-2014, 12:23 PM
Nothing about what you described would imply that it isn't random. Random doesn't mean that you will get one of everything and it doesn't mean you will get what you want.
It seems that most people get mainly mods other than SMG/LMG/AR mods. I've gotten mainly sniper/pistol mods, so did Sevrin and apparently so did Kortacos. Random would be that you'd get it at least once if you opened that many boxes. No three people's "luck" should be nearly the same.

Manstan
06-23-2014, 01:23 PM
It seems that most people get mainly mods other than SMG/LMG/AR mods. I've gotten mainly sniper/pistol mods, so did Sevrin and apparently so did Kortacos. Random would be that you'd get it at least once if you opened that many boxes. No three people's "luck" should be nearly the same.

Add me to that list. I get mods for rocket, grenades launches, and infectors, weapons I don't use.

3rdpig
06-23-2014, 01:25 PM
I worked on software of this kind a number of years ago, not for games, but for something else that required a "random" return. I don't like to discuss it because I don't know what's going on under the hood of Defiance other than what I experience, but everything I worked on of this nature was weighted in some degree. Sometimes it was done to prevent streaks, other times it was done to obtain a desired result (the ends justify the means...right?).

And as nice as someone like PhantasieTrion is, I doubt he's allowed to discuss such things with us. But I've never played a game with an RNG store where the random part felt truly random, but then again sometimes software that's honestly designed to give random results has streaks. And no game company divulges drop rates or how their RNG works.

Get used to it kids, because it's how they're all going. Even Firefall is adding an RNG component. Just don't get suckered into spending money you can't afford on an RNG. But that holds true of any gambling. The odds are always in the house's favor.

Synther
06-23-2014, 05:21 PM
It seems that most people get mainly mods other than SMG/LMG/AR mods. I've gotten mainly sniper/pistol mods, so did Sevrin and apparently so did Kortacos. Random would be that you'd get it at least once if you opened that many boxes. No three people's "luck" should be nearly the same.

Your control group consists of four people out of the possible hundreds that play this game. I would hardly call your experiment to be concise in any manner. You still have not described something that isn't random. If four people pulled the same exact mod one right after another all for pistols, that would indicate a problem with RNG. That's not what happened. You all pulled mods for pistols, but not necessarily the same one. Again: Random doesn't mean you get one of everything nor does it mean you get what you want. It means it's random. You get what it gives you. If you don't like it, don't buy random mod caches.

There is also no whining in random. You take what it gives you and if you don't like it, tough schtako.

Amack
06-23-2014, 05:50 PM
I worked on software of this kind a number of years ago, not for games, but for something else that required a "random" return. I don't like to discuss it because I don't know what's going on under the hood of Defiance other than what I experience, but everything I worked on of this nature was weighted in some degree. Sometimes it was done to prevent streaks, other times it was done to obtain a desired result (the ends justify the means...right?).

And as nice as someone like PhantasieTrion is, I doubt he's allowed to discuss such things with us. But I've never played a game with an RNG store where the random part felt truly random, but then again sometimes software that's honestly designed to give random results has streaks. And no game company divulges drop rates or how their RNG works.

Get used to it kids, because it's how they're all going. Even Firefall is adding an RNG component. Just don't get suckered into spending money you can't afford on an RNG. But that holds true of any gambling. The odds are always in the house's favor.

Without going into any dirty details, I can say it is definitely weighted to accomplish certain things for the company.

I happened to notice a pattern awhile back that I, and many others, were able to utilize to fill up our missing orange grenades rather quickly. In the end it did no good helping most of them out with anything as they turned out to be two faced fools, but hey karma is a *****.

Bonehead
06-23-2014, 06:08 PM
I worked on software of this kind a number of years ago, not for games, but for something else that required a "random" return. I don't like to discuss it because I don't know what's going on under the hood of Defiance other than what I experience, but everything I worked on of this nature was weighted in some degree. Sometimes it was done to prevent streaks, other times it was done to obtain a desired result (the ends justify the means...right?).

And as nice as someone like PhantasieTrion is, I doubt he's allowed to discuss such things with us. But I've never played a game with an RNG store where the random part felt truly random, but then again sometimes software that's honestly designed to give random results has streaks. And no game company divulges drop rates or how their RNG works.

Get used to it kids, because it's how they're all going. Even Firefall is adding an RNG component. Just don't get suckered into spending money you can't afford on an RNG. But that holds true of any gambling. The odds are always in the house's favor.

Yep, random is random, except when it's not.

mr8liner
06-23-2014, 09:12 PM
It seems that most people get mainly mods other than SMG/LMG/AR mods. I've gotten mainly sniper/pistol mods, so did Sevrin and apparently so did Kortacos. Random would be that you'd get it at least once if you opened that many boxes. No three people's "luck" should be nearly the same.

I opened at least 60 epic mod boxes, over a 2 months period. I mostly got sniper, pistols shotguns bmg's. I got very few ar/smg/lmg's. infectors.

I had over 200 mods in my claims and most of them i just sold to the vendor because they were useless. ar/lmg/smg mods should be dropping more then what they are now.

Since it is season two, TRION needs to make the specials mods purple and turn the green mods to blue. I know it is something they wouldn't do but it would make since. I think with the new boost and the PPP they could easily make up the money from people not using bits to get epic mods boxes. I really don't think many people get them anyways.

We just need somethings to change..

Griffix8
06-23-2014, 09:36 PM
I opened at least 60 epic mod boxes, over a 2 months period. I mostly got sniper, pistols shotguns bmg's. I got very few ar/smg/lmg's. infectors.

I had over 200 mods in my claims and most of them i just sold to the vendor because they were useless. ar/lmg/smg mods should be dropping more then what they are now.

Since it is season two, TRION needs to make the specials mods purple and turn the green mods to blue. I know it is something they wouldn't do but it would make since. I think with the new boost and the PPP they could easily make up the money from people not using bits to get epic mods boxes. I really don't think many people get them anyways.

We just need somethings to change..
I was looking at the numbers and I find it hard to believe that despite countless amount of boxes opened that few to no mods are found for AR/SMG/LMG and that being "random".
Number of mods for each weapon type:
AR - 11
Shotguns - 8
Pistols - 11
Snipers - 8
Infectors - 8
BMGs - 7
Dets - 7
Rockets - 9

So 69 mods in total. Plus the 12 synergies. So all in all 828 mods (this is not counting Paradise, Chimera or 7th Legion).
Total mods (number plus the 11 standard synergies plus the 1 non synergy):
AR - 132 (15.9% chance of getting this type of a random synergy)
Shotguns - 96 (11.59% chance of getting this type of a random synergy)
Pistols - 132 (15.9% chance of getting this mod of a random synergy)
Snipers - 96 (11.59% chance of getting this type of a random synergy)
Infectors - 96 (11.59% chance of getting this type of a random synergy)
BMGs - 84 (10.1% chance of getting this type of a random synergy)
Dets - 84 (10.1% chance of getting this type of a random synergy)
Rockets - 108 (13% chance of getting this type of a random synergy)

We've got equal "luck" in getting AR/SMG/LMG mods as we do pistols yet I've had about 12 pistol mods and only about 4-6 AR mods. I should less "luck" getting sniper or Infector mods yet I've had about 8 sniper mods about 6-8 Infector mods.
I should have the least amount of "luck" getting BMG or Detonator mods yet I've pulled about 5 or 6 det mods (2 were Assassin Perimeter Overthruster) and about 7-8 BMG mods (half of which were Quartermaster with the other half being either Rolling Thunder or Scavenger).
All in all I've pulled more mods from pretty much every type than I have for ARs. I've pulled on a couple of shotgun mods, most were Scavenger.

And if you, mr8liner, seem to be getting mostly sniper and pistol mods that makes another person. We'd have to ask Taco or other big mod vendors and see what they get.

Manstan
06-24-2014, 05:12 AM
Your control group consists of four people out of the possible hundreds that play this game. I would hardly call your experiment to be concise in any manner. You still have not described something that isn't random. If four people pulled the same exact mod one right after another all for pistols, that would indicate a problem with RNG. That's not what happened. You all pulled mods for pistols, but not necessarily the same one. Again: Random doesn't mean you get one of everything nor does it mean you get what you want. It means it's random. You get what it gives you. If you don't like it, don't buy random mod caches.

There is also no whining in random. You take what it gives you and if you don't like it, tough schtako.

"Oh Trion hand me a towel and do me again".

Random in comps is not. Not like throwing dice, or playing roulette, they all start with a base number usually based on time of day. So if you play about the same time every day you can expect similar not so random out comes.