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View Full Version : T2 vs T3 vs T4 Breakdown to Resources Analysis



Heartlight
07-12-2014, 01:03 AM
If someone's done this before, my apologies, I didn't find it anywhere and my particular brand of OCD is to need to know the numbers of something rather than just a general, "Yes, but, I KNOW." I've been meaning to do this for a while and with the latest patch, it seemed timely. Thought I'd share it with y'all, for what it's worth.

For this exercise, I excluded the possibility of arkforge and use the minimum value item possibly received within the box. I don't know if it's possible to receive an uncommon grenade but I have never, thus the assumption of the rare grenade type as minimum.

___________________

Assumptions

T2 - 2 uncommon weapons @ 500 resources each
1 rare grenade/spike/stim @ 750 resources
8 keys to access

T3 - 3 uncommon weapons @ 500 resources each
1 rare grenade/spike/stim @ 750 resources
24 keys to access

T4 - 4 rare weapons @ 750 resources each
1 rare grenade/spike/stim @ 750 resources
64 keys to access



The Formula

(minimum item value * item quantity + 750 special item) * # of boxes purchased with key amount = total resources received on breakdown



The Calculations

Spending 8 keys

T2 - (500*2+750)*1 = 1750 resources


Spending 24 keys

T2 - (500*2+750)*3 = 5250 resources

-or-

T3 - (500*3+750)*1 = 2250 resources



Spending 64 keys

T2 - (500*2+750)*8 = 14000 resources

-or-

T3 + T2 - (500*3+750)*2 + (500*2+750)*2 = 8000 resources
(48 keys for 2xT3, 16 keys for 2xT2)

-or-

T4 - (750*4+750)*1 = 3750 resources


___________________

Receiving an epic or legendary item would, obviously, increase these numbers but I believe the minimums are the usual and the higher ticket items being the exception (with the possible exception of grenades within any lockbox). However, there it is.

tl;dr T2 is the better value for resources; doesn't speak to OJ drop rates (personally, I get the same amount of OJ's from T2's as T4's).

It is SO late for me so please do let me know if I have errors :)

<3

Bonehead
07-12-2014, 01:20 AM
Thanks Heartlight. I am going to keep buying T2s. The arkforge will come as it will from events. The thing to remember is, they can't have it be too common in game while it's for sale in the bit store.

drackiller
07-12-2014, 03:18 AM
Never been very good at Mathematic but i got an OJ SS Ranger yesterday in the first T2 i opened. Arkforge...nickles.

cmpowell
07-12-2014, 03:29 AM
If you could do this to figure out af drop rates I'd be ecstatic! but good information. I always went for t3s when I was looking for OJs didn't try t2s until af came about

Telemachus
07-12-2014, 03:46 AM
Been playing since the first day, used to get just get t4's for the first year then switched to t3's about 6 months ago , never received a orange grenade or a shield in all those boxes, then switched to t2's about 1 1/2 months ago, have gotten two in that time.


Took me 4 1/2 months to get a single orange from the start the game, just buying t4's , was easier to get keys then, could from emergencies at that time. Was rolling in keys .


Think I'll stick with t2's for now, received several oranges and some were shields also.


Seems easier to get more oranges from lockboxes then to get arkforge to upgrade items anyway, .ie ease of replacing items over difficulty to get the resources to level them to my current ego, is quite large. If you're 5k + character, that's been playing a long time and have a large inventory,that is.

Heartlight
07-12-2014, 08:39 AM
If you could do this to figure out af drop rates I'd be ecstatic! but good information. I always went for t3s when I was looking for OJs didn't try t2s until af came about

If I could find the reported %, I would love to do this for drop rates. Anyone know?
Edit: found the drop rate projects on defiancedata. I'll see if I can figure out an algorithm to compare them.

Etaew
07-12-2014, 08:47 AM
If I could find the reported %, I would love to do this for drop rates. Anyone know?

DD currently has a public data collection open for T2, T3 and T4 lockboxes which show percentages.

Heartlight
07-12-2014, 08:54 AM
DD currently has a public data collection open for T2, T3 and T4 lockboxes which show percentages.

Hah, funny Etaew, as I was editing my to include the fact that I found it on DD, you wrote this :)

The DD T2 page for anyone who's interested: http://www.defiancedata.com/lockbox.php?id=2
Other project links in the sidebar on that page.

Drusus
07-12-2014, 09:07 AM
Ok, but there is a problem with your analysis Heartlight, or more to the point, nature of the valuation.

If the goal is to convert keys to scrap/scrip? T2 is the way to go.

The problem is without some means for you to evaluate the competitive value of Green < Blue < Purple < Orange and then the likelihood of a good base chassis with the random properties that provide the 'at play' utility of the item? It's kind of moot.

I'd fully expect the raw recycling rate to be best on the low end purchase simply because, by observable design, it's the point of basic resource conversion at a loss, especially if you were to buy keys to buy T2s (maybe I'm off but that now looks to be sheer insanity according to those numbers).

I think your math and presentation are accurate but as much of the AF debate kind of side steps, the real question in all of this (and the Warmaster fights too, honestly) is 'What do the player's actually think is _valuable_ to receive?'

ArkForge topped that list of easily identified value simply due to it's scarcity versus demand in upgrading (go go economics?) coupled with the VERY easy value definition of real money value in the bits store.

I honestly think the bigger issue here is the gear system itself being perceived that most random combinations are junk, regardless of rarity. In the interest of full disclosure, I certainly succumb to this perception as any purple with the Grenade damage bonus or 'Outlaw' (save on Sawn-off or single shot weapons like the Flare) or 'Survivalist' is instantly destroyed. Seriously, these are fundamentally substandard results and the supply rate of gear is _so high_ that stockpiling or making due with it is just less valuable than feeding it to the vendor or Matrix.

I think the numbers and minimal value expectations you did are dead on.

I further think though that without some real way to evaluate the quality and percentages to receive _useful_ quality from a chest, they kind of miss the point.

I do not, unfortunately, have an immediate solution to offer that would not be heavily arbitrary and exceedingly formulaic while arbitrary at that, which I don't think really helps. :)

Sorry if that rains on the parade mate, I think you did good work (as Etaew and DD do repeatedly, I might add). Just think the problem is far broader than this sample scope offers for interpretation.

Heartlight
07-12-2014, 09:18 AM
Sorry if that rains on the parade mate, I think you did good work (as Etaew and DD do repeatedly, I might add). Just think the problem is far broader than this sample scope offers for interpretation.

Nope, absolutely no argument in what you've written and certainly doesn't rain on my parade :) This was really a simple and straight minimum resource analysis with no attempt to discern reasonability of acting in that manner. Although, having my feet set upon a path to determine value based on drop rate, I'm looking forward to adding that analysis to my information, once I can figure it out :)

I'd love to compile one on the new AF drop rate but there's not enough data yet - and likely I'd want to do one based on the drop rate of all sources of AF in game. Ahhhh, the dreams of a geekgirl.

PseudoCool
07-12-2014, 12:33 PM
I would normally be all over this thread with numbers, figures, and a huge data set to prove it.

However.. said numbers and data-set where just nerfed back to the cromagnon era with the 2.101 patch from yesterday to "adjust arkforge drop rates".

And.. in my experience, by the time you get a good solid set of data variables, Trion will probably adjust something all over again that'll make your dataset invalid for the new patch. I've done datasets three times now, and everytime, right after I do, a patch comes out and adjusts the drop rates.

I'm sure it's all just working as intended however, and wish you the best of luck with your searching and data mining.