brokenshield

02-22-2015, 08:08 AM

Seeing a lot of people saying they received the same CC weekly reward both weeks. It just appears to be a high percentage for a supposedly RNG. Just my curiosity at work.

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brokenshield

02-22-2015, 08:08 AM

Seeing a lot of people saying they received the same CC weekly reward both weeks. It just appears to be a high percentage for a supposedly RNG. Just my curiosity at work.

WhiteStrike

02-22-2015, 08:12 AM

Seeing a lot of people saying they received the same CC weekly reward both weeks. It just appears to be a high percentage for a supposedly RNG. Just my curiosity at work.

Nope,it's just RNG flipping them off,they were just unlucky.

Nope,it's just RNG flipping them off,they were just unlucky.

stefb42

02-22-2015, 08:15 AM

Got a heartseeker week 1 and a thorny rose week 2 on the na server, got a thorny rose week 1 and the final caress week 2 on EU server

Other than those I got a sackload of oj disruptors and guided rockets, 1 smg and 2 particle repeaters and another heartseeker as a reward from a cc

Other than those I got a sackload of oj disruptors and guided rockets, 1 smg and 2 particle repeaters and another heartseeker as a reward from a cc

WhiteStrike

02-22-2015, 08:17 AM

Got a heartseeker week 1 and a thorny rose week 2.

Me too!:eek:

Me too!:eek:

Tekrunner

02-22-2015, 08:18 AM

This is most likely self-selection bias. The many people who got 2 different weapons don't have a reason to talk about it, whereas people who got duplicates are more likely to complain. The chance to get duplicates assuming perfect randomness is 1/6, over the entire player base that's quite a few people. And while people who got 2 RLs may be unlucky, those who got 2 roses or kisses are probably not too sad about that.

stefb42

02-22-2015, 08:18 AM

Me too!:eek:

Could have been a lot worse heh, thinking of the poor clanmates that got 2 final caresses

Could have been a lot worse heh, thinking of the poor clanmates that got 2 final caresses

Claydough

02-22-2015, 12:26 PM

Well i got every weapon with doubles of the rose and fates kiss only...

Do you really think the devs would go out of their way to rig it just to annoy their players...

Do you really think the devs would go out of their way to rig it just to annoy their players...

brokenshield

02-22-2015, 12:33 PM

I think you may read way too much into things.

tarmim

02-22-2015, 01:49 PM

And while people who got 2 RLs may be unlucky, those who got 2 roses or kisses are probably not too sad about that.

Yeaah so i got 2 cupid arrows lol.

Yeaah so i got 2 cupid arrows lol.

Phobos9000

02-22-2015, 02:01 PM

I've been getting the same shtako rewards too. Earlier today was a purple HB pistol, and a few days ago it was another purple HB pistol. I think it was the same last week. The only orange I've received was Fate Kiss.

SirServed

02-22-2015, 02:17 PM

For people that think it's rigged, go grab a Die. Each side represents your chance to get 1 of the 6 named weapons on the current event's loot table. Now start rolling it and take note of the results. In 10 rolls, some numbers may seem to be favored. Now go roll it 9,990 more times and look at the results.

As Tekrunner previously stated, the players posting about unwanted results are a minor percentage of the whole, meaning the odds won't appear to balance out until a very large number of results have been recorded. I myself got 2 Thorny Roses on my 5597 character's account and Fate's Kiss/Precious on my 5900 character's account.

As Tekrunner previously stated, the players posting about unwanted results are a minor percentage of the whole, meaning the odds won't appear to balance out until a very large number of results have been recorded. I myself got 2 Thorny Roses on my 5597 character's account and Fate's Kiss/Precious on my 5900 character's account.

ButtTheRipper

02-22-2015, 02:32 PM

I got last caress/precious. It is random and multiple first hand anecdotes do not make scientific data. Btw, precious is super fun against mutants... gotta sanitize those things with fire:D.

WhiteStrike

02-22-2015, 02:49 PM

This is most likely self-selection bias. The many people who got 2 different weapons don't have a reason to talk about it, whereas people who got duplicates are more likely to complain. The chance to get duplicates assuming perfect randomness is 1/6, over the entire player base that's quite a few people. And while people who got 2 RLs may be unlucky, those who got 2 roses or kisses are probably not too sad about that.

Wrong.It is actually 1/6 × 1/6 which is 1/36.

Wrong.It is actually 1/6 × 1/6 which is 1/36.

whit

02-22-2015, 03:03 PM

Wrong.It is actually 1/6 × 1/6 which is 1/36.

I think it is a 1/6. You already have the first, so the chance of getting the same again is 1/6.

It is 1/36 to get a particular gun twice. With 6 guns, the chance of getting any gun twice is 6 * 1/36 ie. 1/6.

I think it is a 1/6. You already have the first, so the chance of getting the same again is 1/6.

It is 1/36 to get a particular gun twice. With 6 guns, the chance of getting any gun twice is 6 * 1/36 ie. 1/6.

ButtTheRipper

02-22-2015, 03:21 PM

the chance of getting them again is 1/6 because the rolls reset but the chance of rolling subsequent duplicate rolls is 1/36(1/6*1/6) which is still a large amount of the population. ^^^ idk where that six in this came from 6 * 1/36....explain????? Your entire post is contradicting Whit( and completely against math), you say it is 1/36 to get a gun twice but with 6 guns it turns into 1/6. The 1/36 number was derived from a six gun pool so where does the 6* come from. if the chances were 1/8 then the chances of pulling the same gun twice would be 1/64.

brokenshield

02-22-2015, 03:54 PM

As I've yet to see anyone mention rigged results in this thread, why is it assumed that was my intent? All these assumptions about anyone complaining about rigging are just that, assumptions. Can it not even be fathomed that an RNG could could be bugged in this game like so much else. I was only interested in getting an idea of how many had doubled down on weekly.

I've been here before in other forums. Some statistician always starts arguing the laws of probabilty. So before this ends up with pages and pages of numbers statistic...

My curiosity is no more. Drive on.

I've been here before in other forums. Some statistician always starts arguing the laws of probabilty. So before this ends up with pages and pages of numbers statistic...

My curiosity is no more. Drive on.

whit

02-22-2015, 04:02 PM

I was trying to approach the same answer from two angles but I obviously failed to put it across.

I said a particular gun. So starting with no guns, it is 1/36 of getting, say, 2 cupid arrows. As there are 6 guns, then the chance of getting ANY gun twice is 6 * 1/36 ie 1/6.

To be honest I don't really care about the maths, I am just sick that I got 2 cupid arrows !

I said a particular gun. So starting with no guns, it is 1/36 of getting, say, 2 cupid arrows. As there are 6 guns, then the chance of getting ANY gun twice is 6 * 1/36 ie 1/6.

To be honest I don't really care about the maths, I am just sick that I got 2 cupid arrows !

Doomsteel

02-22-2015, 04:04 PM

This is most likely self-selection bias. The many people who got 2 different weapons don't have a reason to talk about it, whereas people who got duplicates are more likely to complain. The chance to get duplicates assuming perfect randomness is 1/6, over the entire player base that's quite a few people. And while people who got 2 RLs may be unlucky, those who got 2 roses or kisses are probably not too sad about that.

Those of us that never even got one, are pretty damn unlucky! (Thorny Rose) im talking about.

Those of us that never even got one, are pretty damn unlucky! (Thorny Rose) im talking about.

WhiteStrike

02-22-2015, 04:31 PM

the chance of getting them again is 1/6 because the rolls reset but the chance of rolling subsequent duplicate rolls is 1/36(1/6*1/6) which is still a large amount of the population. ^^^ idk where that six in this came from 6 * 1/36....explain????? Your entire post is contradicting Whit( and completely against math), you say it is 1/36 to get a gun twice but with 6 guns it turns into 1/6. The 1/36 number was derived from a six gun pool so where does the 6* come from. if the chances were 1/8 then the chances of pulling the same gun twice would be 1/64.

No,I mean the total chance.Imagine this:You claim jackpot A in week 1.There was a 1/6 chance of claming it.Now,in weak 2 there us a 1/6 chance of claiming jackpot A again.By the probability math,that will be 1/6 from the 1st week ×1/6 from the 2nd week.I'm calculating the probability of getting the same jackpots in general,but if you make the math after the first jackpot has been claimed then it is 1/6.It depends on the moment that said probability started.

No,I mean the total chance.Imagine this:You claim jackpot A in week 1.There was a 1/6 chance of claming it.Now,in weak 2 there us a 1/6 chance of claiming jackpot A again.By the probability math,that will be 1/6 from the 1st week ×1/6 from the 2nd week.I'm calculating the probability of getting the same jackpots in general,but if you make the math after the first jackpot has been claimed then it is 1/6.It depends on the moment that said probability started.

bigbri2k5

02-22-2015, 06:12 PM

There are worse things than getting two of the same gun. You could be like me and you got back into the game too late to get any of them :p

wjssmith

02-22-2015, 06:35 PM

Having grinded keys for boxes as well as bought crates from the store I can say that in my experience this is about average (99%) crap, 9/10ths of a percent usable and 1/10th of a percent good. during the event between my two characters on the weekly i pulled, 1- precious, 1- final caress, 1-heartseeker, and 1-thorny rose. on the daily i pulled something like 16 purple sniper rifles, 16 purple pistols, 1 oj carbine, 1 oj smg, 1 oj sniper. the ojs may have been dropped from majors (went to claims as my inventory was full of green mods.)

Xaat Xuun

02-23-2015, 04:20 AM

only on the PC-EU did I receive double

Week 1

PC/NA Main - Precious (http://www.defiancedata.com/weapon.php?id=327), Alt - Heartseeker (http://www.defiancedata.com/weapon.php?id=326)

PC/EU Main - Final Caress (http://www.defiancedata.com/weapon.php?id=325) , Alt - Final Caress (http://www.defiancedata.com/weapon.php?id=325)

Week 2

PC/NA Main - Heartseeker (http://www.defiancedata.com/weapon.php?id=326), Alt - Precious (http://www.defiancedata.com/weapon.php?id=327)

PC/EU Main - Final Caress (http://www.defiancedata.com/weapon.php?id=325), Alt - Final Caress (http://www.defiancedata.com/weapon.php?id=325)

Week 1

PC/NA Main - Precious (http://www.defiancedata.com/weapon.php?id=327), Alt - Heartseeker (http://www.defiancedata.com/weapon.php?id=326)

PC/EU Main - Final Caress (http://www.defiancedata.com/weapon.php?id=325) , Alt - Final Caress (http://www.defiancedata.com/weapon.php?id=325)

Week 2

PC/NA Main - Heartseeker (http://www.defiancedata.com/weapon.php?id=326), Alt - Precious (http://www.defiancedata.com/weapon.php?id=327)

PC/EU Main - Final Caress (http://www.defiancedata.com/weapon.php?id=325), Alt - Final Caress (http://www.defiancedata.com/weapon.php?id=325)

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