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View Full Version : Understanding Loot: (Probability, weights & random numbers) - No oranges? Check this.



Cynical Jester
05-20-2013, 08:34 AM
This was in response to this thread here (http://forums.defiance.com/showthread.php?31475-Here-are-the-concrete-probabilities-for-each-Lockbox-tier) that contains a very nice breakdown of the loot data:

I think some people that are not receiving oranges are looking at it wrong and I also wanted to add a couple thoughts... Any of this could be wrong so feel free to correct it / ignore it.

I believe people are thinking about themselves individually to much when they should be thinking about it more like a casino. Someone next to you could hit two jackpots in a row (Very unlikely) and you could hit 0 your entire life. Really it depends on how much you play and the machine.

All machines are fixed, the question no one will ever know other than the owner of the machine is how fixed. Nothing in the digital world is really random. Lets move away from the mindset of a big casino real quick that may actually own their own games and go more with the standard of leasing machines (Especially popular amongst states that allow those "sweepstakes" games).

A machine is guaranteed to make (they profit, you do not) a certain amount of money over a certain amount of time. The people that lease the machines set the percentages. If a machine ends up paying out way to much it's considered broken and needs to be adjusted/fixed. The people that lease the machines to the places gain a certain amount of profit of whatever goes into the machine, no matter what the places may have had to pay out. The simple side: Not everyone can be a winner.

A question I would have would be this:

Is the loot determined when you buy the box or open the box? is each piece rolled individually or is it all selected at the same time?

Then lets talk about "weights". A good example is how Arkfalls are known to give shields and grenades more often than not. Those two items could be "heavier" than the rest of the loot table increasing the likely hood of receiving those two items. For example (and I'm not sure if this is true but a theory): If you buy a LockBox from the bit store the chance to receive an orange item may be higher than if you bought it with regular resources due to the "weight" of the oranges in the bit store being increased.

An example in C# from, http://programmers.stackexchange.com/questions/150616/return-random-list-item-by-its-weight:

Here's an algorithm (in C#) that can select random weighted element from any sequence, only iterating through it once:


public static T Random<T>(this IEnumerable<T> enumerable, Func<T, int> weightFunc)
{
int totalWeight = 0; // this stores sum of weights of all elements before current
T selected = default(T); // currently selected element
foreach (var data in enumerable)
{
int weight = weightFunc(data); // weight of current element
int r = Random.Next(totalWeight + weight); // random value
if (r >= totalWeight) // probability of this is weight/(totalWeight+weight)
selected = data; // it is the probability of discarding last selected element and selecting current one instead
totalWeight += weight; // increase weight sum
}

return selected; // when iterations end, selected is some element of sequence.
}

I honestly believe to get the true percentages (other than looking at TRIONs' data or an addon that everyone could use that tracked the data automatically) would to approximately know the entire population of the game and then assign a certain amount of people to one person using the OPs method.

Those selected people that counts for everyone else would then have to start a new game and track every LootBox precisely every time they opened one. Over time the data would become more accurate. But any changes to the weights could throw off that accuracy quite a bit if it wasn't re-started every so often (Especially depending on how much time had gone by to set those percentages in stone)....

Whether or not t3 is better or not is relative to the player.. Do you want a better chance at the orange or do you want a better chance at just a generally decent gun of any color. That's to say t4s aren't weighted to have more 'popular' guns / stats.. No one knows really... Would love to know their loot break down.

TLDR; You are either an unlucky soul like me and the world hates you... If/When you do get an orange it's going to be something completely useless you didn't want anyway. Like a rebound lobber or the infector that just slows people...

or

You're just one of the lucky ones / gamble a lot.

Really I just PvP to much.. Takes me 64 games to get one lockbox... You barely get any xp for it.. ahh well such is the life of PvPer.. Still rockin with my white and green weapons! (All the blues / purples I seem to get have bad stats or just the wrong gun).

Note: I also wonder if the weights are not increased as your ego goes up or vice versa.

3rdpig
05-20-2013, 09:07 AM
I'm EGO 2026 and I've gotten 3 orange items from lockboxes. One was a rebound lobber and another was the Infector that slows enemies and the third was a rocket launcher. I kid you not. I am that unlucky soul. I've bought or traded for several better orange guns, but none of them are as good as purple guns I've found at vendors.

cusman
05-20-2013, 09:36 AM
Very interesting read... it would be nice to know how Trion has implemented their stuff.

I myself wonder if certain locations are more likely to reward certain types of weapons. It does seem that way to me... but I am not sure. I mean if I am opening lockboxes in just Muir Processing Plant, then it seems I get lot of Detonator weapons. Another location I got lot of Rocket stuff, and so on.

It could all be random chance and my poor guess since I don't sit and note down the statistics, but it does seem that way to me.

So anyway, what I am doing is I will keep opening Tier-3 or 4 boxes in one spot until I get an orange, and then move to a different location. Hopefully that gets me the variety of Oranges that is more desirable.

Trading becomes less likely since the ones you get are tied to your EGO level and I crossed 2500 yesterday. Can't imagine too many people wanting to trade me an Orange that requires them to be 2500+ EGO to be able to use.

Cynical Jester
05-20-2013, 01:01 PM
I'm EGO 2026 and I've gotten 3 orange items from lockboxes. One was a rebound lobber and another was the Infector that slows enemies and the third was a rocket launcher. I kid you not. I am that unlucky soul. I've bought or traded for several better orange guns, but none of them are as good as purple guns I've found at vendors.

Damn.. Yea.. I really think the crappier infectors, lobbers and crappier launchers all have some heavy weights... My third orange was also a rocket launcher... The weird thing to me is this pattern.. even in a random system like this you shouldn't so easily be able to identify the formula. I feel as though it's not as random as they meant it to be.

Cynical Jester
05-20-2013, 01:05 PM
Very interesting read... it would be nice to know how Trion has implemented their stuff.

I myself wonder if certain locations are more likely to reward certain types of weapons. It does seem that way to me... but I am not sure. I mean if I am opening lockboxes in just Muir Processing Plant, then it seems I get lot of Detonator weapons. Another location I got lot of Rocket stuff, and so on.

It could all be random chance and my poor guess since I don't sit and note down the statistics, but it does seem that way to me.

So anyway, what I am doing is I will keep opening Tier-3 or 4 boxes in one spot until I get an orange, and then move to a different location. Hopefully that gets me the variety of Oranges that is more desirable.

Trading becomes less likely since the ones you get are tied to your EGO level and I crossed 2500 yesterday. Can't imagine too many people wanting to trade me an Orange that requires them to be 2500+ EGO to be able to use.

I would love to know more of your results in time! Especially the theory of where you buy your lockboxes cause I generally buy mine in Iron Demon or Muir. I may try SF from now just because it's the last zone.. Very interesting theory.

Switching places isn't such a bad idea.. Whether it actually works or not is questionable but it could be the same as switching machines at a casino.

Racheakt
05-20-2013, 01:34 PM
I'm EGO 2026 and I've gotten 3 orange items from lockboxes. One was a rebound lobber and another was the Infector that slows enemies and the third was a rocket launcher. I kid you not. I am that unlucky soul. I've bought or traded for several better orange guns, but none of them are as good as purple guns I've found at vendors.

ego 2100 no oranges, I have found some decent vendor purples though

Cynical Jester
05-20-2013, 02:22 PM
ego 2100 no oranges, I have found some decent vendor purples though

Yea, I seem to have had the best luck with them.. but not much better. My main weapon I use in PvP is still a white lower ego one...