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View Full Version : Still not down with the economics of lockbox maths..... :P



crasher
05-22-2013, 09:24 AM
Tell me again, like I'm a dope:

Why would I buy a Tier 4: 4 = 64K @ 16K/item
When I could buy a Tier3: 3 = 24K @ 8K/Item
Or 2 of the Tier 3: 6 = 48K @ 8K/item
Or 3 of the Tier 3: 9 = 72K @ 8K/Item

??

People don't seem to be getting more OJ from the 4's than the 3's in half the anecdotal accounts.

Show me the numbers?

Hope499
05-22-2013, 09:31 AM
ALL I can say, is I have bought 29203982948934893483 TIER 3 boxes, and 294893084903 Tier 2 boxes...

None gave me an orange except ONCE from a Tier2 (a grenade)

I have bought about 50 Teir 4's and have gotten 3 oranges...I can no longer buy anything but.

SteveMND
05-22-2013, 09:52 AM
Show me the numbers?

There are no numbers; Trion isn't releasing them, and while there is a player-made database growing, it's of dubious accuracy due to the sampling method, and Sledge has also confirmed that it's not particularly accurate.

Honestly my question is, why do people bother buying lockboxes at all? Aside from just clearing out your 75 keycode cap gotten from arkfals, and such, I suppose. The likelihood of getting an orange is so minuscule -- regardless of which one has the "best" rate -- it seems like a massive and utter waste of money for people to spend actual Bits on them.

sQuinty
05-22-2013, 09:59 AM
There are no numbers; Trion isn't releasing them, and while there is a player-made database growing, it's of dubious accuracy due to the sampling method, and Sledge has also confirmed that it's not particularly accurate.

Honestly my question is, why do people bother buying lockboxes at all? Aside from just clearing out your 75 keycode cap gotten from arkfals, and such, I suppose. The likelihood of getting an orange is so minuscule -- regardless of which one has the "best" rate -- it seems like a massive and utter waste of money for people to spend actual Bits on them.


I have only been playing for a few weeks now, and I generally keep 200k arch on me, but as things stand now (and even more so IMO when you can reset weapon XP) what is there to spend ark on?

Going forward you will have your favorite weapon with favorite bonuses, maybe one extra for weapon leveling if you still need to do that. But you will rarely need to add mod slots going forward, and occasionally you will need to reset a weapon, and that's about it.

So what else should we do with the currency? unless I am missing something here.

To the OP, from the numbers the user community has thrown together, I haven't seen any real argument for either type of box to be honest, and it basically boils down to personal preference. The best argument I have seen (and why I will purchase T3's) is rate of oranges is about the same per keycode spent, but the ark return is much better with T3's, and thus even more boxes for the same amount of work.

Tango80
05-22-2013, 10:00 AM
There is technically a higher percentage to get oranges from the t4 over the t3.

However your getting more chances to get oranges from the t3 over the t4.

example if say the T4 drop oranges at 5% chance that means you have 5% chance per weapon to be a orange. With a total of 4 tries to get orange.

T3 on the other hand has a lower possibility to get orange.

Example lets say t3 drop oranges at 2.5%. You get three chances to get oranges over the four however you can buy a total of 3 lock boxes so that a total of 9 weapons or gear at 2.5%.

So if your going for oranges you can go either with quantity chance with the t3 or the quality chance with the t4.

It's what you decide. (remember these are just example percentages and were just pulled out of the blue so don't quote me as say they are the actual percentages.)

crasher
05-22-2013, 10:12 AM
The only reason I'm buying is because keys are 'use or lose'. I've been at 75 K for a few cycles in the past, and obviously at 75K you accumulate no more, so it's wasted opportunity for Some kind of bonus if not spent..Honestly, OJ to me isn't 'cross the street for one', but wtf, if it's in my inv I wont scrap it. If it's not good enough to equip I'd pay it forward. They only tend to be status or ornimental at this point anyway.

I'd rather have good blues or purples with nanos (will work for syphon or electric SAWs).

The question was about efficiency of investment wrt return. If you want to substitute 'Useful blue/purple' for 'OJ', in the statement I'm good with that too.

I was under the (mistaken?) impression that Trion said the odds were supposed to be ~equal across the board?

sQuinty
05-22-2013, 10:21 AM
The only reason I'm buying is because keys are 'use or lose'. I've been at 75 K for a few cycles in the past, and obviously at 75K you accumulate no more, so it's wasted opportunity for Some kind of bonus if not spent..Honestly, OJ to me isn't 'cross the street for one', but wtf, if it's in my inv I wont scrap it. If it's not good enough to equip I'd pay it forward. They only tend to be status or ornimental at this point anyway.

I'd rather have good blues or purples with nanos (will work for syphon or electric SAWs).

The question was about efficiency of investment wrt return. If you want to substitute 'Useful blue/purple' for 'OJ', in the statement I'm good with that too.

So again personal experience, I tend to get better quality items out of T4. In fact greens are pretty low out of T4. The main thing though to also consider is when you are getting those greens, they effectively just get crunched and turned into currency to mod weapons, or buy more boxes.

That being said, I don't think the following is being to overly optimistic for what you might see.

3 t3 boxes
3-5 greens
3-4 blues
1-3 purples
0-1 orange

In a t4 box, I have never seen more then one green (again personally)

I also haven't seen a difference (or heard of one) in the overall quality of the same item being better or worse in the different boxes.

But since you are only spending keycodes, it's a bit tricky, because where you will get overall better quality in items in t4 boxes, you are also more likely to hit 75 codes and stop receiving more (at least I would be)

Tango80
05-22-2013, 10:24 AM
The only reason I'm buying is because keys are 'use or lose'. I've been at 75 K for a few cycles in the past, and obviously at 75K you accumulate no more, so it's wasted opportunity for Some kind of bonus if not spent..Honestly, OJ to me isn't 'cross the street for one', but wtf, if it's in my inv I wont scrap it. If it's not good enough to equip I'd pay it forward. They only tend to be status or ornimental at this point anyway.

I'd rather have good blues or purples with nanos (will work for syphon or electric SAWs).

The question was about efficiency of investment wrt return. If you want to substitute 'Useful blue/purple' for 'OJ', in the statement I'm good with that too.

I was under the (mistaken?) impression that Trion said the odds were supposed to be ~equal across the board?


If they were equal across the board why would people spend bits on them then? If a T2 gives only 2 weapons over the 4 from T4 and have exactly the same chance why would anyone buy anything but the T2 boxes?

You have to give some incentive to purchase the higher boxes. T3 probably has a higher percentage to drop oranges than T2 and the T4 should have a higher percentage than the T3.

What ever the percentage is the T4 will have a higher chance per gear item over the T3. But again as I said quantity wise you have more chances with the T3 over the T4.

Quality of gear on the other hand Goes to T4 Hands down.

3rdpig
05-22-2013, 10:28 AM
The sad truth is that even if you get an orange, the chances of it being a POS are probably on the order of 95%. You're better off spending your time searching vendors for good purple items, which really doesn't take that long and provides good results, than grinding for the 1 in 10,000 chance of getting a good orange item from a lockbox.

Sorry, I know that's not what you asked, but it's reality, or at least has been for me.

Tango80
05-22-2013, 10:34 AM
The sad truth is that even if you get an orange, the chances of it being a POS are probably on the order of 95%. You're better off spending your time searching vendors for good purple items, which really doesn't take that long and provides good results, than grinding for the 1 in 10,000 chance of getting a good orange item from a lockbox.

Sorry, I know that's not what you asked, but it's reality, or at least has been for me.

Which is true the vendor special purples tend to be a bit better than some of the gear that comes from the lockboxes. (in fact the majority of stuff that comes from lockboxes.)

However if you have the keycodes and it's a use em or lose em situation I would just blow them all on either the mod caches or the T4. T3 every once and while because i feel like it.

Sayrone
05-22-2013, 10:41 AM
the fact that Trion wont release the info worries me, yes this may be a free to play game but i honestly dont see anyone buying lock boxes with real cash. i feel like im wasting in-game currency, i dont want to waste 5 dollars on a pile of scrap.

now lets say they had premium lockboxes with a higher chance of legendaries, maybe i might do that.

Tango80
05-22-2013, 10:53 AM
the fact that Trion wont release the info worries me, yes this may be a free to play game but i honestly dont see anyone buying lock boxes with real cash. i feel like im wasting in-game currency, i dont want to waste 5 dollars on a pile of scrap.

now lets say they had premium lockboxes with a higher chance of legendaries, maybe i might do that.

I can see why they won't release them because it might be a algorithm that changes so there is no way to tell if one type of lockbox tier will have a higher percentage over another.

Example a T4 has a 10% chance for green 50% blue 30% purple and 10% orange per item at this hour. But the next hour it could be 20% green 30% blue 30% purple 20% orange per item.
But a T2 has a 60% chance for green 30%blue 5% purple 5% orange. While in the next hour it would be 50% green 25%blue 15% purple 10%orange.

It might fluctuate but still stay in the parameters of what they want for each lock box to drop a percentage of colored items.

So we might say that the T4 will never go over 15% chance to drop green. But the oranges wont have a higher chance than 5%. However the blues and purples might fluctuate so that sometimes you have a higher chance to get purples and other times you might have a higher chance to get blues.

So Again it might fluctuate therefore telling you that hey this is the best lockbox to get but in actuality it might not be. Because of the fluctuating Algorithm that garners the lockbox rolls.

So not telling people the coding because even they can't predict the outcome is what i think is why they won't let the info out.

NoahsArkfall
05-22-2013, 11:12 AM
In my personal experience, limited as it has been, I've done better with Tier 2 boxes. I've bought around 10 Tier 4s with no orange, but a higher % of blues and purples. I've bought 15-20 Tier 3s with 1 orange and it was actually a pretty good burst AR. I've bought roughly 25-30 Tier 2s and today I got 2 oranges (1 per box) from back to back boxes. I got a nice cluster-nade and a triple shot rocket launcher. I would say that I plan on using keys for nothing but Tier 2s from here on out, but I seem to recall Sledge hinting somewhere on the forums that mixing up your box purchases might yield better results. Of course that could just be a ploy to get players to waste keys or hopefully use more bits. Also, I had a 10% loot boost on when I opened them today. I'm not sure if that applies to lockboxes, but it should be noted.

rReves
05-22-2013, 11:29 AM
One thing that has always intrigued me is the difference between the price ratios of t3 and t4 lockboxes when you compare the in-game resource prices with the bits prices.

Bits: t3=240, t4=400 (t4 price=1,67x t3 price)
In-game: t3=24 Keycodes, t4=64 Kc (t4 price=2,67x t3 price). Left out the scrip cost which favors the t4 boxes, but the scrip cost is small compared to the cost in keycodes.

Makes me wonder. If the lockboxes bought with bits have the same droprates as the lockboxes bought with in-game resources.. then some people are getting cheated.

This doesn't answer any questions, it just puzzles me as to why they'd have different price ratios.

Rainman
05-22-2013, 11:49 AM
The sad truth is that even if you get an orange, the chances of it being a POS are probably on the order of 95%. You're better off spending your time searching vendors for good purple items, which really doesn't take that long and provides good results, than grinding for the 1 in 10,000 chance of getting a good orange item from a lockbox.

Sorry, I know that's not what you asked, but it's reality, or at least has been for me.

Yep, ive had 2 and they are garbage detonators which i hate using...salvaged them both.

crasher
05-22-2013, 12:04 PM
I get white SAWs with fire and syphon nano from some warrior mobs.
Hardly any electric.

I mostly hit the vendors hoping to find blu+ fire or syphon SAWs, and decent mags.
I burn up a lot of SAWs, and it's just a personal thing with me.... The fun factor.
Blu is more 'fun' to have than white.
I gave up on hoping for purple.
Not interested in the bioSAWs at TopNotch.

I've traded more OJ stuff I don't want for Blu fire/syphon SAWs than I've found blu+ SAWs at vendors or in lockboxes.