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Still not down with the economics of lockbox maths..... :P

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  • 05-22-2013, 09:24 AM
    crasher
    Still not down with the economics of lockbox maths..... :P
    Tell me again, like I'm a dope:

    Why would I buy a Tier 4: 4 = 64K @ 16K/item
    When I could buy a Tier3: 3 = 24K @ 8K/Item
    Or 2 of the Tier 3: 6 = 48K @ 8K/item
    Or 3 of the Tier 3: 9 = 72K @ 8K/Item

    ??

    People don't seem to be getting more OJ from the 4's than the 3's in half the anecdotal accounts.

    Show me the numbers?
  • 05-22-2013, 09:31 AM
    Hope499
    ALL I can say, is I have bought 29203982948934893483 TIER 3 boxes, and 294893084903 Tier 2 boxes...

    None gave me an orange except ONCE from a Tier2 (a grenade)

    I have bought about 50 Teir 4's and have gotten 3 oranges...I can no longer buy anything but.
  • 05-22-2013, 09:52 AM
    SteveMND
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by crasher View Post
    Show me the numbers?

    There are no numbers; Trion isn't releasing them, and while there is a player-made database growing, it's of dubious accuracy due to the sampling method, and Sledge has also confirmed that it's not particularly accurate.

    Honestly my question is, why do people bother buying lockboxes at all? Aside from just clearing out your 75 keycode cap gotten from arkfals, and such, I suppose. The likelihood of getting an orange is so minuscule -- regardless of which one has the "best" rate -- it seems like a massive and utter waste of money for people to spend actual Bits on them.
  • 05-22-2013, 09:59 AM
    sQuinty
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SteveMND View Post
    There are no numbers; Trion isn't releasing them, and while there is a player-made database growing, it's of dubious accuracy due to the sampling method, and Sledge has also confirmed that it's not particularly accurate.

    Honestly my question is, why do people bother buying lockboxes at all? Aside from just clearing out your 75 keycode cap gotten from arkfals, and such, I suppose. The likelihood of getting an orange is so minuscule -- regardless of which one has the "best" rate -- it seems like a massive and utter waste of money for people to spend actual Bits on them.


    I have only been playing for a few weeks now, and I generally keep 200k arch on me, but as things stand now (and even more so IMO when you can reset weapon XP) what is there to spend ark on?

    Going forward you will have your favorite weapon with favorite bonuses, maybe one extra for weapon leveling if you still need to do that. But you will rarely need to add mod slots going forward, and occasionally you will need to reset a weapon, and that's about it.

    So what else should we do with the currency? unless I am missing something here.

    To the OP, from the numbers the user community has thrown together, I haven't seen any real argument for either type of box to be honest, and it basically boils down to personal preference. The best argument I have seen (and why I will purchase T3's) is rate of oranges is about the same per keycode spent, but the ark return is much better with T3's, and thus even more boxes for the same amount of work.
  • 05-22-2013, 10:00 AM
    Tango80
    There is technically a higher percentage to get oranges from the t4 over the t3.

    However your getting more chances to get oranges from the t3 over the t4.

    example if say the T4 drop oranges at 5% chance that means you have 5% chance per weapon to be a orange. With a total of 4 tries to get orange.

    T3 on the other hand has a lower possibility to get orange.

    Example lets say t3 drop oranges at 2.5%. You get three chances to get oranges over the four however you can buy a total of 3 lock boxes so that a total of 9 weapons or gear at 2.5%.

    So if your going for oranges you can go either with quantity chance with the t3 or the quality chance with the t4.

    It's what you decide. (remember these are just example percentages and were just pulled out of the blue so don't quote me as say they are the actual percentages.)
  • 05-22-2013, 10:12 AM
    crasher
    The only reason I'm buying is because keys are 'use or lose'. I've been at 75 K for a few cycles in the past, and obviously at 75K you accumulate no more, so it's wasted opportunity for Some kind of bonus if not spent..Honestly, OJ to me isn't 'cross the street for one', but wtf, if it's in my inv I wont scrap it. If it's not good enough to equip I'd pay it forward. They only tend to be status or ornimental at this point anyway.

    I'd rather have good blues or purples with nanos (will work for syphon or electric SAWs).

    The question was about efficiency of investment wrt return. If you want to substitute 'Useful blue/purple' for 'OJ', in the statement I'm good with that too.

    I was under the (mistaken?) impression that Trion said the odds were supposed to be ~equal across the board?
  • 05-22-2013, 10:21 AM
    sQuinty
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by crasher View Post
    The only reason I'm buying is because keys are 'use or lose'. I've been at 75 K for a few cycles in the past, and obviously at 75K you accumulate no more, so it's wasted opportunity for Some kind of bonus if not spent..Honestly, OJ to me isn't 'cross the street for one', but wtf, if it's in my inv I wont scrap it. If it's not good enough to equip I'd pay it forward. They only tend to be status or ornimental at this point anyway.

    I'd rather have good blues or purples with nanos (will work for syphon or electric SAWs).

    The question was about efficiency of investment wrt return. If you want to substitute 'Useful blue/purple' for 'OJ', in the statement I'm good with that too.

    So again personal experience, I tend to get better quality items out of T4. In fact greens are pretty low out of T4. The main thing though to also consider is when you are getting those greens, they effectively just get crunched and turned into currency to mod weapons, or buy more boxes.

    That being said, I don't think the following is being to overly optimistic for what you might see.

    3 t3 boxes
    3-5 greens
    3-4 blues
    1-3 purples
    0-1 orange

    In a t4 box, I have never seen more then one green (again personally)

    I also haven't seen a difference (or heard of one) in the overall quality of the same item being better or worse in the different boxes.

    But since you are only spending keycodes, it's a bit tricky, because where you will get overall better quality in items in t4 boxes, you are also more likely to hit 75 codes and stop receiving more (at least I would be)
  • 05-22-2013, 10:24 AM
    Tango80
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by crasher View Post
    The only reason I'm buying is because keys are 'use or lose'. I've been at 75 K for a few cycles in the past, and obviously at 75K you accumulate no more, so it's wasted opportunity for Some kind of bonus if not spent..Honestly, OJ to me isn't 'cross the street for one', but wtf, if it's in my inv I wont scrap it. If it's not good enough to equip I'd pay it forward. They only tend to be status or ornimental at this point anyway.

    I'd rather have good blues or purples with nanos (will work for syphon or electric SAWs).

    The question was about efficiency of investment wrt return. If you want to substitute 'Useful blue/purple' for 'OJ', in the statement I'm good with that too.

    I was under the (mistaken?) impression that Trion said the odds were supposed to be ~equal across the board?


    If they were equal across the board why would people spend bits on them then? If a T2 gives only 2 weapons over the 4 from T4 and have exactly the same chance why would anyone buy anything but the T2 boxes?

    You have to give some incentive to purchase the higher boxes. T3 probably has a higher percentage to drop oranges than T2 and the T4 should have a higher percentage than the T3.

    What ever the percentage is the T4 will have a higher chance per gear item over the T3. But again as I said quantity wise you have more chances with the T3 over the T4.

    Quality of gear on the other hand Goes to T4 Hands down.
  • 05-22-2013, 10:28 AM
    3rdpig
    The sad truth is that even if you get an orange, the chances of it being a POS are probably on the order of 95%. You're better off spending your time searching vendors for good purple items, which really doesn't take that long and provides good results, than grinding for the 1 in 10,000 chance of getting a good orange item from a lockbox.

    Sorry, I know that's not what you asked, but it's reality, or at least has been for me.
  • 05-22-2013, 10:34 AM
    Tango80
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by 3rdpig View Post
    The sad truth is that even if you get an orange, the chances of it being a POS are probably on the order of 95%. You're better off spending your time searching vendors for good purple items, which really doesn't take that long and provides good results, than grinding for the 1 in 10,000 chance of getting a good orange item from a lockbox.

    Sorry, I know that's not what you asked, but it's reality, or at least has been for me.

    Which is true the vendor special purples tend to be a bit better than some of the gear that comes from the lockboxes. (in fact the majority of stuff that comes from lockboxes.)

    However if you have the keycodes and it's a use em or lose em situation I would just blow them all on either the mod caches or the T4. T3 every once and while because i feel like it.
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