Blue Blue Blue Green

[Yrkul]

Statistically, on a per 100 keys basis T4s have almost double the chance to drop an orange than 100 keys worth of T3s.

Everything else is nothing but meaningless anecdotes and confirmation bias. T4s are the best way to get oranges, T3s are the best way to get purples.

http://forums.defiance.com/showthrea...ection-Project

Now queue all of the chuckleheads who will argue that their "feelings" are more accurate than cold, raw statistics.

Can you guarantee that:

1. Every participant submitting data is doing so for every single box they open?
   
   
2. Trion has not changed the way items are generated in regards to rarity during the time the data was collected?

If the answer to either is a no or a mmnnn... maybe? then we aren't talking statistics, but anecdotal evidence.

You are right in one thing, though. Nothing can be concluded from the observations of a handful of people. Yet if a pattern is forming, it's worth looking into.

[SICK_VENDETTA]

Statistically, on a per 100 keys basis T4s have almost double the chance to drop an orange than 100 keys worth of T3s.

Everything else is nothing but meaningless anecdotes and confirmation bias. T4s are the best way to get oranges, T3s are the best way to get purples.

http://forums.defiance.com/showthrea...ection-Project

Now queue all of the chuckleheads who will argue that their "feelings" are more accurate than cold, raw statistics.

i understand this. but unfortunately this isnt the o' "whats better t4 or t3" question. why i wrote this thread was to inform that t4 have been consistently only been paying BBBG and i wanted to see if anyone was having similar issues.

[boogiejive]

ill do world tours where i start at the top and work my way down buying a box at every location and i did a t4 tour and got 4 ojs then did a t3 tour where i bought 3 each place and only got 2 ojs so i think t4s are just a bit better and less keys then 3 t3s to

[Justified]

You're not alone Sick.

http://forums.defiance.com/showthrea...x.-Teen.-Times.

From the last few T4's I've bought, I've also gotten the bbbg combo. I'm guessing this is a side effect of their patch/DLC to "enhance the T4 lock box drops."

[boogiejive]

its not from the dlc i have been getting that combo from day 1 its just the most go to like i said before

[Cavadus]

1. Every participant submitting data is doing so for every single box they open?
2. Trion has not changed the way items are generated in regards to rarity during the time the data was collected?

Obviously no one can guarantee point #1. #2 is irrelevant since enough entries over time will shape the data to reflect new patterns. It's a self-correcting document (especially if it weights newer entries more heavily than older entries so changes are more pronounced).

If the answer to either is a no or a mmnnn... maybe? then we aren't talking statistics, but anecdotal evidence.

Just because someone may have only entered 400 out 421 lockboxes doesn't turn these statistics into anecdotes, sorry. It just means that percentages of percentages could be +/-. It would hardly influence any averages so long as enough total data points have been collected. And to me that margin of error is, well, marginal and doesn't affect any trends in the data project in any significant way. Certainly not in a significant enough way to alter the final conclusions.

@ SICK_VENDETTA
As I mentioned earlier, I had gone about a month with 1-2 T4 boxes per night with nary a purple, let alone an orange. A week and a half ago I pulled two oranges back-to-back. WAI, IMO.

If a lockbox only has a 5% chance to drop an orange that doesn't mean anyone is guaranteed an orange per 20 lockboxes. It's perfectly feasible to open an unlimited amount of lockboxes and never get an orange. It's perfectly feasible to open five lockboxes and get two oranges per.

[Xzelian]

Regarding the pattern,

O.k. I would put in quotes for those who say that this is normal for stats, and would quote those who say "huh?" but I'll just save us all some time and summarize.

I too get the BBBG, pattern all too often.

I firmly believe that like many other items in this game, the RNG is bugged or even possibly weighted for specific players.

Forget the "Orange to others" ratio that people are trying to sort.

RNG means "Random Number Generator" not "Random Non-Orange Generator."

The point of this discussion is that out of something that is supposed to be RNG, the likelihood of BBBG in the mix this often suggests ANYTHING but Random.

I am a certified poker tourney director and can tell you that if a single player were to lay down a hand that consistently showed club, club, club, Heart, Heart 7 out of eight times, we'd have had players calling for a deck check and required reshuffles.
(suites being the best analogy as stats in reference to overall deck percentages don't add up with single card face values.)

Something is amiss here.

[marcus magrov]

EGO 1600. I've bought mainly T4's from the start, averaging at least 2 a week and have NEVER even seen an orange. To me they are like the Loch Ness Monster.

[Yrkul]

Obviously no one can guarantee point #1. #2 is irrelevant since enough entries over time will shape the data to reflect new patterns. It's a self-correcting document (especially if it weights newer entries more heavily than older entries so changes are more pronounced).

But is newer data weighted more heavily? If not, then development will show less clearly, the larger the data set is. Unless you up the input to match, that is.

Just because someone may have only entered 400 out 421 lockboxes doesn't turn these statistics into anecdotes, sorry. It just means that percentages of percentages could be +/-. It would hardly influence any averages so long as enough total data points have been collected. And to me that margin of error is, well, marginal and doesn't affect any trends in the data project in any significant way. Certainly not in a significant enough way to alter the final conclusions.

Depends on the reason why a box was left out of the data set. If the trend is, that a person lets a box slip now and again if unremarkable, then data from that person tends to skew towards good and/or bad results. You'll need data from people, who are consistent with their input, and as far as I can see, there is no guarantee of that.

The project does give an indication of drop rates, but really shouldn't be toted as evidence or cold, raw facts.

On a different note and just to throw a wrench in the possible rumour mill construction, I opened another T4 box today and got POPB. I thought "Hey! The human sacrifice worked" and burned all my salvage on two more... PBGG and BBBB. Hmh! Orange was a syphon grind fragger, but with crap stats and synergy. That and everything else went straight to the vendor.

Bottom line is, that it's too random to really be worth investing real money into. It also has the effect of creating a lot of disappointment, even if only in-game resources are spent. It makes it harder to get people to recommend buying lockboxes, let alone the game itself, with this sort of percieved contrivances.

[Defy me]

Not playin anymore, but I have over 60 legendarys lol, I should give them away....but don't want to lol

Anyway, before I stopped playin, I was probably on box # 30

ALL 30 were:

blue blue blue green


all of them...