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  1. #11
    Member SirServed's Avatar
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    For people that think it's rigged, go grab a Die. Each side represents your chance to get 1 of the 6 named weapons on the current event's loot table. Now start rolling it and take note of the results. In 10 rolls, some numbers may seem to be favored. Now go roll it 9,990 more times and look at the results.

    As Tekrunner previously stated, the players posting about unwanted results are a minor percentage of the whole, meaning the odds won't appear to balance out until a very large number of results have been recorded. I myself got 2 Thorny Roses on my 5597 character's account and Fate's Kiss/Precious on my 5900 character's account.

  2. #12
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    I got last caress/precious. It is random and multiple first hand anecdotes do not make scientific data. Btw, precious is super fun against mutants... gotta sanitize those things with fire.

  3. #13
    Member WhiteStrike's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tekrunner View Post
    This is most likely self-selection bias. The many people who got 2 different weapons don't have a reason to talk about it, whereas people who got duplicates are more likely to complain. The chance to get duplicates assuming perfect randomness is 1/6, over the entire player base that's quite a few people. And while people who got 2 RLs may be unlucky, those who got 2 roses or kisses are probably not too sad about that.
    Wrong.It is actually 1/6 × 1/6 which is 1/36.
    Defiance is gone. Gamigo has been "not neglecting" the game for over a year, yet there's nothing new except for low effort arkfalls and bitshop items.
    I know it might be hard to quit a game you loved for years but you have to understand that it won't get better. Ever. If you like the game in it's current state, then sure, keep playing it. You're enjoying yourself after all. But if you aren't, don't hope for a better future for Defiance. Because it won't come.


    Spoiler:


  4. #14
    Member whit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WhiteStrike View Post
    Wrong.It is actually 1/6 × 1/6 which is 1/36.
    I think it is a 1/6. You already have the first, so the chance of getting the same again is 1/6.

    It is 1/36 to get a particular gun twice. With 6 guns, the chance of getting any gun twice is 6 * 1/36 ie. 1/6.

  5. #15
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    the chance of getting them again is 1/6 because the rolls reset but the chance of rolling subsequent duplicate rolls is 1/36(1/6*1/6) which is still a large amount of the population. ^^^ idk where that six in this came from 6 * 1/36....explain????? Your entire post is contradicting Whit( and completely against math), you say it is 1/36 to get a gun twice but with 6 guns it turns into 1/6. The 1/36 number was derived from a six gun pool so where does the 6* come from. if the chances were 1/8 then the chances of pulling the same gun twice would be 1/64.

  6. #16
    Member brokenshield's Avatar
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    As I've yet to see anyone mention rigged results in this thread, why is it assumed that was my intent? All these assumptions about anyone complaining about rigging are just that, assumptions. Can it not even be fathomed that an RNG could could be bugged in this game like so much else. I was only interested in getting an idea of how many had doubled down on weekly.

    I've been here before in other forums. Some statistician always starts arguing the laws of probabilty. So before this ends up with pages and pages of numbers statistic...

    My curiosity is no more. Drive on.

    Sig created by The Honorable Major Crapshot

  7. #17
    Member whit's Avatar
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    I was trying to approach the same answer from two angles but I obviously failed to put it across.

    I said a particular gun. So starting with no guns, it is 1/36 of getting, say, 2 cupid arrows. As there are 6 guns, then the chance of getting ANY gun twice is 6 * 1/36 ie 1/6.

    To be honest I don't really care about the maths, I am just sick that I got 2 cupid arrows !

  8. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tekrunner View Post
    This is most likely self-selection bias. The many people who got 2 different weapons don't have a reason to talk about it, whereas people who got duplicates are more likely to complain. The chance to get duplicates assuming perfect randomness is 1/6, over the entire player base that's quite a few people. And while people who got 2 RLs may be unlucky, those who got 2 roses or kisses are probably not too sad about that.
    Those of us that never even got one, are pretty damn unlucky! (Thorny Rose) im talking about.

  9. #19
    Member WhiteStrike's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ButtTheRipper View Post
    the chance of getting them again is 1/6 because the rolls reset but the chance of rolling subsequent duplicate rolls is 1/36(1/6*1/6) which is still a large amount of the population. ^^^ idk where that six in this came from 6 * 1/36....explain????? Your entire post is contradicting Whit( and completely against math), you say it is 1/36 to get a gun twice but with 6 guns it turns into 1/6. The 1/36 number was derived from a six gun pool so where does the 6* come from. if the chances were 1/8 then the chances of pulling the same gun twice would be 1/64.
    No,I mean the total chance.Imagine this:You claim jackpot A in week 1.There was a 1/6 chance of claming it.Now,in weak 2 there us a 1/6 chance of claiming jackpot A again.By the probability math,that will be 1/6 from the 1st week ×1/6 from the 2nd week.I'm calculating the probability of getting the same jackpots in general,but if you make the math after the first jackpot has been claimed then it is 1/6.It depends on the moment that said probability started.
    Defiance is gone. Gamigo has been "not neglecting" the game for over a year, yet there's nothing new except for low effort arkfalls and bitshop items.
    I know it might be hard to quit a game you loved for years but you have to understand that it won't get better. Ever. If you like the game in it's current state, then sure, keep playing it. You're enjoying yourself after all. But if you aren't, don't hope for a better future for Defiance. Because it won't come.


    Spoiler:


  10. #20
    There are worse things than getting two of the same gun. You could be like me and you got back into the game too late to get any of them

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