The Lockbox Data Collection Project

[Vuule]

Are you ****ing kidding me.. Kept buying Tier 4 lockboxes, purchased 5 in total or so. No legendary.

Just a minute ago..
"Let's try a Tier 3 for once"
Green sniper, Orange Infector, Green Infector..
"YOU'VE GOT TO BE F'ING KIDDING MEH!"

-.-;

[wise00]

One of the most important threads here. Bravo!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Zhaocore]

T4 Lockbox #1 : 2 blues weapons, 1 green grenade, 1 green weapon
T4 Lockbox #2 : 1 purple weapon, 1 blue grenade, 2 green shields
T3 Lockbox #1 : 1Green grenade, 1 blue weapon, 1 blue shield
T3 Lockbox #2 : 1 Orange weapon, 1 blue weapon, 1 green shield

edit: ok so my orange weapon is gone. I tried to add a mod slot to it and now..its gone...is that a known bug?

[Vuule]

T4 Lockbox #1 : 2 blues weapons, 1 green grenade, 1 green weapon
T4 Lockbox #2 : 1 purple weapon, 1 blue grenade, 2 green shields
T3 Lockbox #1 : 1Green grenade, 1 blue weapon, 1 blue shield
T3 Lockbox #2 : 1 Orange weapon, 1 blue weapon, 1 green shield

edit: ok so my orange weapon is gone. I tried to add a mod slot to it and now..its gone...is that a known bug?

Yes. Has something to do with the matrix salvage. If you use it while entering PvP, or disconnecting or w/e, there's a chance it will disappear. It's a known issue and they're working on it.

[Arctic Fox]

This is SUPER. Thanks man. I'll post up every lock box I buy starting today

[Noupoi]

Great to see the positive response to this thead!

One thing to note: there should be decay of results. What I mean by that is that more recent results should carry more weight than those further in the past. This is because Trion will certainly tweak drop rates in patches, so results entered during a prior build are not applicable to current build.

Alternatively drop rates could be reported on a timescale, maybe grouping each week's submissions. This would tell even more about the development of rates.

That's a valid point, though I don't think Trion will make any significant changes to the drop rates without mentioning it, perhaps in the patch notes somewhere.
With more data, this does seem worth doing, but I also need to figure out a good way to set it up first.

It's not clear whether a larger "cost per try" value is better or worse. Could you please clarify?

Cost per try is how many keycodes you are paying for each item. It's not so much the cost per try that matters, but Drop rate / Cost per try shown in the Efficiency graph, where higher is better. This is a measure of the likelihood of obtaining a orange/purple/blue for each keycode you spend.

[Arramakaian]

That's a valid point, though I don't think Trion will make any significant changes to the drop rates without mentioning it, perhaps in the patch notes somewhere.
With more data, this does seem worth doing, but I also need to figure out a good way to set it up first.

Given the wacky results, it is safe to assume they will be tweaked to make the 4-unit boxes more attractive somehow. But yeah, you need tens of observations to make statistically meaningful conclusions.

A quick and dirty way of doing the decay would be to weigh everything posted in the last 7 days so that they total 50% of the final average, and all prior entries would be the other 50%. Figures are just suggestions.

[Millby]

Given the wacky results, it is safe to assume they will be tweaked to make the 4-unit boxes more attractive somehow. But yeah, you need tens of observations to make statistically meaningful conclusions.

A quick and dirty way of doing the decay would be to weigh everything posted in the last 7 days so that they total 50% of the final average, and all prior entries would be the other 50%. Figures are just suggestions.

Great thought. Another quick/dirty method would simply be to only return results on the X most recent submissions. Where X is a number high enough to return statistically significant results balanced against frequency and number of submissions. Your result wouldn't likely be too different from Arramakaian's method, but might be a bit easier to implement.

[nack516]

Very nice, I will be adding my data as it comes.

[Atlas TKD]

My bits were taken and I didn't bother trying out again with keys and for the most part got nothing worth while so far on my new character. My first character where I thought origin meant something with synergy when everyone was to stupid to just say they are separate managed to get a berserker shotgun.