The Lockbox Data Collection Project

[Brian]

I haven't bought that many lock boxes and T2 and T3 or useless to purchase. I know people say otherwise on these forums but all my good gear at my Ego level have always come from T4 lockboxes and you never actually get a useless lockbox on T4 which isn't the case with T2 and T3. I have 2 oranges now and haven't really had to work that hard to get them. To easy if you was me.

Two oranges? Ah man! I have the worst of luck. Opened about 11 T4 boxes; perhaps a little bit more?

[Yokai]

I figured I'd point this out if nobody else has already. I haven't read all pages of this thread, but one thing the spreadsheet lacks is the cumulative binomial probability. Which is the real number to look at when deciding the best tier to buy.

Let's use legendary (orange) as an example. Say you have 72 key codes, and you want to know what the best chance of scoring AT LEAST 1 legendary from those 72 key codes. Based on the collected data so far, it seems like T2 = 4% chance, T3 = 6% chance, and T4 = 8% chance.

With cumulative binomial probablity, you have the following odds for spending those 72 key codes:

1x T4 lockbox = 4 trials at 8% per trial = 28.3% cumulative probability to get at least one legendary from the box

3x T3 lockboxes = 9 trials at 6% per trial = 42.7% cumulative probability to get at least one legendary from the 3 boxes

9x T2 lockboxes = 18 trials at 4% per trial = 52.0% cumulative probability to get at least one legendary from the 9 boxes

----

As you can see, your best cumulative probability for scoring a legendary per X number of keys comes from T2 lockboxes, pure and simple. This is basic probability math.

Now of course, if Trion changes the drop rates on us, we'd have to collect more data again to reverse engineer the drop rates. Regardless, once we know the drop rates for each tier, you can go find a binomial statistics calculator and figure out the odds exactly.

Here's a good online probabilty calculator that I use all the time for questions like these, and also for building card decks for CCGs (wherein you want to use hypergeometric distribution to figure out your deck builds).

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

BTW I'm pretty sure that Google spreadsheets has a binomial probability function built in, but you'll have to create some tables of prebuilt probabilities and then write some gscript to pick the right numbers out of the tables. It's a PITA but I did it once for a Google-docs based deck builder for Shadow Era decks.

[Diedel]

I figured I'd point this out if nobody else has already. I haven't read all pages of this thread, but one thing the spreadsheet lacks is the cumulative binomial probability. Which is the real number to look at when deciding the best tier to buy.

Let's use legendary (orange) as an example. Say you have 72 key codes, and you want to know what the best chance of scoring AT LEAST 1 legendary from those 72 key codes. Based on the collected data so far, it seems like T2 = 4% chance, T3 = 6% chance, and T4 = 8% chance.

With cumulative binomial probablity, you have the following odds for spending those 72 key codes:

1x T4 lockbox = 4 trials at 8% per trial = 28.3% cumulative probability to get at least one legendary from the box

3x T3 lockboxes = 9 trials at 6% per trial = 42.7% cumulative probability to get at least one legendary from the 3 boxes

9x T2 lockboxes = 18 trials at 4% per trial = 52.0% cumulative probability to get at least one legendary from the 9 boxes

----

As you can see, your best cumulative probability for scoring a legendary per X number of keys comes from T2 lockboxes, pure and simple. This is basic probability math.

Now of course, if Trion changes the drop rates on us, we'd have to collect more data again to reverse engineer the drop rates. Regardless, once we know the drop rates for each tier, you can go find a binomial statistics calculator and figure out the odds exactly.

Here's a good online probabilty calculator that I use all the time for questions like these, and also for building card decks for CCGs (wherein you want to use hypergeometric distribution to figure out your deck builds).

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

BTW I'm pretty sure that Google spreadsheets has a binomial probability function built in, but you'll have to create some tables of prebuilt probabilities and then write some gscript to pick the right numbers out of the tables. It's a PITA but I did it once for a Google-docs based deck builder for Shadow Era decks.

I really hope that the current percentages are wrong, because that would basically mean that the higher boxes are a rip-off and i would hope that somebody at TRION would be better at basic math. I assumed that the cahnces for T4 would be so high that it is more likely to get legendaries/purples even with the reduced amount of items, you already get far less loot, so the Chance is higher that you won't be using it already.

[Stickasylum]

That same information is encapsulated in the "Drop rate / cost per item" column, which is actually the expected number of items at each level per 100 keycodes spent. While this doesn't tell you the probability of at least one legendary, it does tell you how many you would expect to get (and the efficiency ordering will be the same, so long as the # of lockboxes have the same cost). Since most people probably care more about the number of legendaries they get than the probability of getting at least one legendary, it is probably the more useful metric of efficiency (though it wouldn't hurt to have both!)

Note, however, that the # of lockboxes per keycode amount don't have a 1:3:9 ratio, so comparing those probabilities isn't so useful in terms of resources. The simplest ratio that actually leads to equivalent keycode pricing is 3:8:24 - your approximation overweights T2 and underweights T3 slightly.

I'm skeptical of the T2 legendary drop rate as it is currently estimated. My own estimate (from fewer data points) is closer to 1%, and most of legendaries in this table came from a single 10,10,10,10 entry.

[Bluegobln]

This pisses me off. Seriously, why the F would you design it that way, the BASIC math involved to make sure this was at WORST equally cost effective at each tier of lockbox is so easy to do I can do it on napkin right now...

How they decided to do it and make higher tier lockboxes WORSE is just stunning. Are you kidding? And if it it WAS intentional, once again, what the hell? Why? Are you kidding?

[MaritimeMage]

Thanks for this. Keep up the good work.

[cfStatic]

This thread has some good information in it. However, the one thing that has put me off so far is that a dev has said outright that you're not supposed to be getting uncommon(green) items in tier 4 lock boxes. But because we are, there is therefore a possibility that they're somehow bugged with the loot tables that they use to reward players with. Legendaries could be a bit more common in T4 if that was the case.

[Yokai]

That same information is encapsulated in the "Drop rate / cost per item" column, which is actually the expected number of items at each level per 100 keycodes spent. While this doesn't tell you the probability of at least one legendary, it does tell you how many you would expect to get (and the efficiency ordering will be the same, so long as the # of lockboxes have the same cost). Since most people probably care more about the number of legendaries they get than the probability of getting at least one legendary, it is probably the more useful metric of efficiency (though it wouldn't hurt to have both!)

Note, however, that the # of lockboxes per keycode amount don't have a 1:3:9 ratio, so comparing those probabilities isn't so useful in terms of resources. The simplest ratio that actually leads to equivalent keycode pricing is 3:8:24 - your approximation overweights T2 and underweights T3 slightly.

I'm skeptical of the T2 legendary drop rate as it is currently estimated. My own estimate (from fewer data points) is closer to 1%, and most of legendaries in this table came from a single 10,10,10,10 entry.

The cost info in the spreadsheet is NOT the same as the cumulative probablity. Two different measures.

The cost ratio is irrelevant for cumulative probability. Given that you have 72 keys sitting in your hand, you have the BEST probability of scoring an orange by spending all of them on T2 lockboxes. It doesn't matter that 8 keys will be left over if you buy the T4 lockbox.

[Yokai]

BTW I should clarify one thing too. While you have a better overall cumulative probability of scoring an orange by spending only on T2 lockboxes, you will have far fewer blues and purples show up in your attempts. With T3 and T4 purchases, you'll at get a lot more purples and blues while you wait for an orange to show up.

So on the whole, T3 and T4 are probably still better choices to buy. Because even though you have a lower cumulative probability to score an orange, you have a much higher cumulative probability to score purples and blues.

I'll try to run the numbers later for the best cumulative probability of purples and for blues.

[Doctor love]

Everything in real life that you spend money on with a chance of gaining something out of it like the lotto or scratch and win all provide us with a the chances of getting what we want. With that said, i believe we should focus our energy on getting trion to just tell us the percentages of drop rates for each tier of lockboxes. At the end of the day you can spend real money on these boxes. Would you spend money on a tier 4 knowing thats it % drop made it worst then a tier 2?Lets start a thread to get the real percentages from the Trion company not some made up faulty percentage from people who lie.... sorry starter of this thread.....