The Lockbox Data Collection Project

[H3adstomp3r]

would it not be worth adding a section for the % of luck? dont know if this has already been said have only just stumbled across this!

[DieSlow321]

Ah very well spotted. Indeed this would have some effect.

[Ctullu]

I just entered all of the current data you have gathered into the probability calculator over at stattrek.com, and here is what I came up with.

Assuming you have only 64 Keycodes, and can buy either one Tier 4 Lock Box, three Tier 3 lock Box's, or eight Tier 2 Lock Box's, here are the probabilities of each if you spend all 64 of the Keycodes:

4 items from a single Tier 4 Lock Box yields a 23.7% chance of obtaining at least a single legendary(orange) item.
4 items from a single Tier 4 Lock Box yields a 2.34% chance of obtaining at least two legendary(orange) items.
4 items from a single Tier 4 Lock Box yields a 0.106% chance of obtaining at least three legendary(orange) items.


9 items from three Tier 3 Lock Box's yields a 22.9% chance of obtaining at least a single legendary(orange) item.
9 items from three Tier 3 Lock Box's yields a 2.5% chance of obtaining at least a least two legendary(orange) items.
9 items from three Tier 3 Lock Box's yields a 0.172% chance of obtaining at least three legendary(orange) items.

16 items from eight Tier 2 Lock Box's yields a 18.49% chance of obtaining at least a single legendary(orange) item.
16 items from eight Tier 2 Lock Box's yields a 1.72% chance of obtaining at least a least two legendary(orange) items.
16 items from eight Tier 2 Lock Box's yields a 0.101% chance of obtaining at least three legendary(orange) items.

This is using the current data collected, as follows:

6.54% drop rate from Tier 4 Lock Box's
2.86% drop rate from Tier 3 Lock Box's
1.27% drop rate from Tier 2 Lock Box's

Hopefully this will clear up any questions people have about the actual drop rates and which is better for the money. If you only have 64 key codes to spend and just want a chance at getting a single legendary item, go with a Tier 4 Lock Box. I may come back and make a more comprehensive listing of probabilities for getting epic(purple) items later, but this is what I was looking for at the time and just figured I would share my results with you.

[Yokai]

I just entered all of the current data you have gathered into the probability calculator over at stattrek.com, and here is what I came up with.

Assuming you have only 64 Keycodes, and can buy either one Tier 4 Lock Box, three Tier 3 lock Box's, or eight Tier 2 Lock Box's, here are the probabilities of each if you spend all 64 of the Keycodes:

4 items from a single Tier 4 Lock Box yields a 23.7% chance of obtaining at least a single legendary(orange) item.
4 items from a single Tier 4 Lock Box yields a 2.34% chance of obtaining at least two legendary(orange) items.
4 items from a single Tier 4 Lock Box yields a 0.106% chance of obtaining at least three legendary(orange) items.


9 items from three Tier 3 Lock Box's yields a 22.9% chance of obtaining at least a single legendary(orange) item.
9 items from three Tier 3 Lock Box's yields a 2.5% chance of obtaining at least a least two legendary(orange) items.
9 items from three Tier 3 Lock Box's yields a 0.172% chance of obtaining at least three legendary(orange) items.

16 items from eight Tier 2 Lock Box's yields a 18.49% chance of obtaining at least a single legendary(orange) item.
16 items from eight Tier 2 Lock Box's yields a 1.72% chance of obtaining at least a least two legendary(orange) items.
16 items from eight Tier 2 Lock Box's yields a 0.101% chance of obtaining at least three legendary(orange) items.

This is using the current data collected, as follows:

6.54% drop rate from Tier 4 Lock Box's
2.86% drop rate from Tier 3 Lock Box's
1.27% drop rate from Tier 2 Lock Box's

Hopefully this will clear up any questions people have about the actual drop rates and which is better for the money. If you only have 64 key codes to spend and just want a chance at getting a single legendary item, go with a Tier 4 Lock Box. I may come back and make a more comprehensive listing of probabilities for getting epic(purple) items later, but this is what I was looking for at the time and just figured I would share my results with you.

Great minds think alike. See my sig block. I haven't updated my charts lately, but will soon. It's been busy at work the past three weeks.

I hope you were using the _validated_ drop rates, not the raw ones. That 6.54% drop rate for oranges at T4 seems surprisingly low.

[Burgess]

If I remember correctly you only need a (N) of 20 to gather an accurate probability rating, either that or (N) 100.

[Cavadus]

Bumping for the awesomesauce of this project.

[Macbeth Asdwon]

Have you guys considered taking into account the scrap value of the lockbox as well and coming up with a net cost, since you'll scrap the vast majority of what you get? For example, using the drop percentages for tier 1, you would be able to break those drops down into 14338 salvage per 100 key codes spent, or 14.338 key codes, making the net cost of the chests 85.662. You then come up with a new drop rate per net 100 spent after salvaging the crap. It goes some interesting results and might be more useful as it is your true final cost in codes.

[Macbeth Asdwon]

Have you guys considered taking into account the scrap value of the lockbox as well and coming up with a net cost, since you'll scrap the vast majority of what you get? For example, using the drop percentages for tier 1, you would be able to break those drops down into 14338 salvage per 100 key codes spent, or 14.338 key codes, making the net cost of the chests 85.662. You then come up with a new drop rate per net 100 spent after salvaging the crap. It goes some interesting results and might be more useful as it is your true final cost in codes.

Tier 2 in my example, my bad. I have it all done on an excel doc I have in google drive, just can't figure out how to make it public and get a link to it from my phone. It ends up showing, based on your drop rates, to go for T4 for oranges but T3 for blues and purples.

[Xeno Hunter]

Is there a way to determine which lockboxes will get you an orange weapons with good synergy in it or it doesn't matter?

Reason why is because I've been getting orange weapons with good synergy in it from lockbox 4.

[Myll_Erik]

Yikes - lots of math!

You guys are a busy bunch I'll give you that!