Armistice Premium Elite Lock Box Missing Currency

[Quicksilver1492]

That still doesn't explain why nearly every Elite or even Expert lockbox I buy gives me primarily shotguns or snipers. A lot of times it will be 2 of the exact same gun, maybe a T3 and a T4 of each. Why is this? It seems to be all I ever get, with a random pistol or bmg or infector thrown in every now and then. Usually the only truly random stuff I get is when an OJ drops. Out of all the possible weapon types and variants available in the game, why does it seem like I am stuck in some sort of RNG Hell? You can't really call it bias based on a conceived notion of getting crap drops compared to everyone else. It's obviously something else at work here. Random is random but rolling for 2 of the same gun, and often times over and over, seems a bit off to me. You would think that all weapons would be in the loot pool and all of them would have the same chance at dropping, but it feels like it is weighted to drop certain weapon types more than others. Like the percent numbers are in some sort of ascending or descending order. I don't know. I would think that for something to be truly random, there would be more variety in drops. When I can basically predict what I am going to get, it seems to be less random than I thought. On a side note, I have also noticed cycles in what lockboxes drop as extras. There are days that I can buy several crates from separate vendors and they will all drop AF for me, or will all drop grenades, if I buy them all one after the other. Almost like it is scheduled to do that. It's weird.

[Bentu]

Hey All,

So there is a reason that we do not have lengthy discussions regarding RNG in Defiance, and that is something called Confirmation Bias. Confirmation bias is a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions, leading to statistical errors.

Having discussions about topics that have clear confirmation bias is very difficult, as sometimes its not about statistics or coding facts, its more about how it makes you feel, and the preconceptions that follow based on those feelings.

We appreciate absolutely everything about veteran players in Defiance. If anyone feels as though they are not appreciated, then I apologize, and that is something we are constantly working on improving. But I will say this loud and clear, there is nothing, in the current code or the original code, that causes one character or account to have different RNG than any other character or account in the game. In some games, this is a feature that is added, such as a safety net for players who do not login often. If this was the case, I would simply not be here telling you this.

Veteran accounts are exactly the same as all other accounts based on the game code. The only difference is the time played, which affects nothing. This is us being 100% transparent on the subject, and we have all of the factual evidence that we need to support it. When dealing with topics such as RNG, it can easily bring around issues with confirmation bias, and when you get that feeling, no one can tell you different.

Now in regards to drop rates, there are clearly different drop rates in game for certain boxes, events, expeditions, co-ops, ect. We will never reveal these drop rates, because this is an item based game where the chase of items is paramount, and the % chance takes all entertainment value out of that. That being said, I can tell you for certain that the paid boxes that players purchase, are absolutely better than the Key boxes on the vendor. They are designed that way for a reason, because supporting Defiance should absolutely get you better loot. I do sincerely hope that players can see past the veteran issues that they believe are there, and simply enjoy the game, and give us great feedback on how we can help you enjoy it further.

I do hope that this helps clear things up for some, and for those that it does not, we appreciate every second that you spend in Defiance, and will continue working hard to make sure that we offer you more of the best experiences that we can. Thanks for listening all!

Again apologies for posting the lot.

Destromathe I opened approximately 160 in game boxes that should of been bits store boxes and didn't get a single jp from them.
Sorry I can't agree with you bias or not.

[Sevrin]

Originally posted by Destromath: "... That being said, I can tell you for certain that the paid boxes that players purchase, are absolutely better than the Key boxes on the vendor. They are designed that way for a reason, because supporting Defiance should absolutely get you better loot..."

Wow. If this is the case. Then this thread becomes very illuminating. Because, if I am understanding this thread correctly, then of the 125 to 150 "paid" for boxes I pulled during the Armistice event (because of the switching error) I should have received "absolutely better" loot than I would have if I had been pulling regular boxes. Well, I did receive the premium currency but received exactly zero JPs or OJs. Think about it. The implications are staggering for those "supporting Defiance" -- sad to say.

[Hunter0]

Hey All,

So there is a reason that we do not have lengthy discussions regarding RNG in Defiance, and that is something called Confirmation Bias. Confirmation bias is a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions, leading to statistical errors.

Having discussions about topics that have clear confirmation bias is very difficult, as sometimes its not about statistics or coding facts, its more about how it makes you feel, and the preconceptions that follow based on those feelings.

We appreciate absolutely everything about veteran players in Defiance. If anyone feels as though they are not appreciated, then I apologize, and that is something we are constantly working on improving. But I will say this loud and clear, there is nothing, in the current code or the original code, that causes one character or account to have different RNG than any other character or account in the game. In some games, this is a feature that is added, such as a safety net for players who do not login often. If this was the case, I would simply not be here telling you this.

Veteran accounts are exactly the same as all other accounts based on the game code. The only difference is the time played, which affects nothing. This is us being 100% transparent on the subject, and we have all of the factual evidence that we need to support it. When dealing with topics such as RNG, it can easily bring around issues with confirmation bias, and when you get that feeling, no one can tell you different.

Now in regards to drop rates, there are clearly different drop rates in game for certain boxes, events, expeditions, co-ops, ect. We will never reveal these drop rates, because this is an item based game where the chase of items is paramount, and the % chance takes all entertainment value out of that. That being said, I can tell you for certain that the paid boxes that players purchase, are absolutely better than the Key boxes on the vendor. They are designed that way for a reason, because supporting Defiance should absolutely get you better loot. I do sincerely hope that players can see past the veteran issues that they believe are there, and simply enjoy the game, and give us great feedback on how we can help you enjoy it further.

I do hope that this helps clear things up for some, and for those that it does not, we appreciate every second that you spend in Defiance, and will continue working hard to make sure that we offer you more of the best experiences that we can. Thanks for listening all!

The majority is not happy with the current loot system!!

[Xyorg]

The majority is not happy with the current loot system!!

made abunduntly clear , we want to control at least part of RNG , be it the weap type with deto , Ars only etc crates , or syn specific , but stop with the pursuit , we like the game we will always find something to pursue , endless grind or wallet spontaneous combustion we simply are not nearly close enough to a satisfactory methode of loot distribution , make this a nb1 priority to revolutionize in defiance cause speaking for only 2 players wich amount to 5400 euro you got from ps3 EU server only from us , im saving for stocks in ur compagny now befor i give a cent in game again

[Greybush]

Soooo...I suppose I'll ask again. Will the compensatory boxes have a shot at the jp's that were in the boxes when I bought them. Or will I have an abysmal chance at that dreadful shotgun only?

[Claydough]

I agree with pretty much everything said,

However i think people that buy rng crates from the bit store should know exactally what they are getting.

They should know the exact chances they have if pulling the jackpot, pulling ojs and T5 mods.
And if you think disclosing this info would hurt your sales, well then you might see why so many players just feel so scammed.

And about the premium gear...
I dont think this is exactally true. I have bought ALOT of crates over the years and have bought enough to know there is alot of high tier junk watering down the actual premium stuff.
Im talking T5 melee stocks, T5 falloff, T5 sights and scopes no one uses, massive amounts of nanoless weapons in these premium crates.

And its these reasons i have more or less stopped spending money on any rng.

[Bentu]

Soooo...I suppose I'll ask again. Will the compensatory boxes have a shot at the jp's that were in the boxes when I bought them. Or will I have an abysmal chance at that dreadful shotgun only?

Destromathe says here that you will.

http://forums.defiance.com/showthrea...=1#post1908342

[Destromathe]

We put in a hotfix last night to add the compensation box, and are working on getting all the data for players who purchased the boxes. Rest assured that the compensation will go out very soon!

[YahootsMagoondi]

So there is a reason that we do not have lengthy discussions regarding RNG in Defiance, and that is something called Confirmation Bias. Confirmation bias is a tendency to search for or interpret information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions, leading to statistical errors.

the problem with confirmation bias in this situation for me is not that i feel like i don't get any jackpots and everybody else does, rather it seems like i can give a list of people who are going to pull multiple jps each event and a list of people who will grind the entire event and not see one. in a normal distribution across such a large sample size, these statistics should not be so predictive or follow the same distribution every time, and yet here we are. this is why so many people feel that there should be more transparency.

Now in regards to drop rates, there are clearly different drop rates in game for certain boxes, events, expeditions, co-ops, ect. We will never reveal these drop rates, because this is an item based game where the chase of items is paramount, and the % chance takes all entertainment value out of that. That being said, I can tell you for certain that the paid boxes that players purchase, are absolutely better than the Key boxes on the vendor. They are designed that way for a reason, because supporting Defiance should absolutely get you better loot.

as for that transparency on drop rates, consider the amount of money people spend in casinos or buying lottery tickets... no matter how bad the numbers are, there are plenty of people willing to throw money on games of chance. in essence, the loot system in defiance is no different. i play defiance because i enjoy it and i enjoy spending time with the people i have met in game. i have spent plenty of money supporting the game even though i know the drop rates are not great. knowing the exact drop rates is not going to change that. perhaps being able to actually do the math and knowing my true odds would make me feel better and disprove the confirmation bias you claim i have. however, as long as you continue to claim that everything is fine and we're all conspiracy theorists and that releasing the numbers would harm our entertainment value, then we're going to be at an impasse and it is going to drive more people away than it attracts.

my son has recently started playing cs:go and i have done some research on their crate system and read several lengthy articles about the odds for pulling certain rarities and items. honestly, the more i know, the more i want to throw him some money in his steam account to open crates. obviously, part of the appeal there is the ability to sell skins for actual money, but i don't think that is a system defiance needs.

i also read a fascinating article about adjusting loot drops through a modified non-replacement draw system in which more jps chances could be added to the pool for every roll in which a jp is not earned, up to a certain percentage, where the chance would be greatly improved the more time or money one spent trying to earn a jp.

my final thought on this is there needs to be a simple database query done in the jp draw, so that when a jp is earned it checks the player's inv and does not assign a duplicate jp if possible. everybody has different preferences and being rewarded a jp should at least feel special, but it's not special when you pull several of the same jp after spending time and/or money on the chance.

that is all.