Tier 2, 3 or 4?

[TwistedSynns]

I have been buying tier 3 lock boxes for 2 days now and still , all i get is crap guns and worthless grenades

[Dodece]

The reason tier four lock boxes are priced so high is, because they have a comparatively high probability of the player drawing a orange weapon. What is confusing so many is they are making assumptions that are just plain wrong when it comes to probabilities. The game uses a random generator, and though your odds may be one in ten. That doesn't mean that one out of ten purchases will have a orange weapon.

It just means you have a ten percent chance. You may go through thirteen or fourteen boxes before you get a orange weapon, but then you might get them back to back. Getting fewer guns with a ten percent chance in the long run offers better results then getting more guns a one percent chance, or more guns then that with almost no chance at all. Tier four boxes rarely initially bare fruit. The value only becomes apparent after you buy a few dozen of them. At that point it becomes increasingly unlikely that you will not have acquired at least a few good orange weapons.

You could buy two hundred tier three boxes and still not get a orange weapon. If you have bought fifty tier four boxes. It is a pretty safe bet you will at least have gotten a couple orange weapons. Not to mention that tier four boxes also have a much higher drop rate of purple gear.

Look ninety nine percent of the items you are going to get in game are generic. You really don't need any of the lock boxes to replace your weapons for grinding. About the only things that aren't generic are the orange items, and those items only have slight advantages. What really makes them different is they have a higher resale value at vendors.

That creates a positive synergy. It means you can sell your orange weapons once you have capped them for much more, and that means you can breakdown more of your gear into resources. Which can be converted into key codes. I am just over level five hundred, and I already have two orange weapons and eight purple items, and almost all of that has come from tier four lock boxes, and I have only bought like a dozen.

You can't really go the cheaper route and get the best gear anywhere near consistently.

[MADD]

Is there a link/confirmation on what the different % is for each type of box? For example Tier 1 = 1%, Tier 2 = 5%, etc.?

Curious how everyone is talking about the better odds, but I haven't seen anything explaining what the odds are. The info may be out there, I just haven't seen it (sorry if I've just missed it).

Any help would be appreciated.

[Dodece]

@MADD

I think it is purely anecdotal at this point in time, and you we will probably never be given an exact probability for each box. We will probably never be given a probability for the random loot drops either. There is nothing good that would come out of the developers giving us the odds, because like I said people don't really understand odds. They see them less as random, and more as a certainty. If the developers tell us we have a ten percent chance. Then players will assume that they will always get what they want granted they did it ten times.

That isn't really how it works at all. Take a coin for example you have a fifty/fifty chance of the coin turning up heads, but that does not mean that if you flip the coin twice you will get heads once. You could get heads twice or not get heads at all. In fact you could flip a coin ten times and get heads or tails every time. Even with a coin incredibly random things like that can happen.

If the developer tells people they have a one in ten chance at a lock box. The first person that buys thirty of them, and doesn't get a single piece of orange gear will scream at the top of their lungs that the system is broken. Completely oblivious to the fact that someone else did the exact same thing, and scored five times. Sometimes it is surprising how truly binary human beings can be given how random our own behavior is.

Anyway I think the verdict is out most of the orange gear seems to be coming from the top tier box. Which actually makes a whole lot of sense. The developer put it there for a reason, and priced it at that point for a reason. Why assume it is a Dunsel. It quite obviously has a purpose given the fact that they are trying to sell it for hard currency.

[xr4ym4nx]

I opened 3 tier 4s and got 3 oranges lol since then ive opened 20 or so tier 3s and had nothing :/

[Pelaquin]

Tier 4's will have a higher % of getting a legendary weapon, it probably works out something like this..

Tier 2

70% Green drop chance
25% Blue Drop chance
4% Purple Drop chance
1% Orange Drop chance

Tier 3

50% Green Drop chance
30% Blue Drop chance
18% Purple Drop chance
2% Orange Drop chance

Tier 4

20% Green Drop chance
46% Blue Drop chance
31% Purple Drop chance
4% Orange Drop chance

I used to code quests for Ultima Online back in the day, and from experience with loot drops this is generally the norm in how it works, so you are better off saving up for tier 4 boxes, and getting the higher % for a legendary weapon drop.

[CozySwiftkilla]

I've bought 8 tier 2 box and out of the 8 I got 3 purple weapons a blue and a legendary shot gun.

[MADD]

I completely appreciate the feedback Dodece and understand 100% what you're saying. Some people like to complain about anything.

Appreciate the example that Pelaquin gave as well from his experience.


I've bought only tier 4 lock boxes at this point...probably only 3 or 4 I think. Haven't gotten a legendary yet...not that I am overly concerned with it other than getting the achievement. I figure I'll get it eventually/naturally. If the difference is really only 1% or so better and the cost is 2-3 times as much for the higher tier...it could work out better in the long run to go with the mid-tier boxes. Of course it's all luck of the draw, but "more chances" at nearly the same rate may be more appealing.

Perhaps that's another reason not to provide the %'s...peeps that are saving up for tier 4s (like myself) may re-think their strategy.

[nofear458]

Haven't bought anything higher than a Tier 2. maybe bought around 20 boxes. have recieved 3 orange weapons. the percentages are the same for every Tier as far as I can tell. you can get way more Tier 2 boxes increasing your probability of getting an orange. However, a lockbox is still not worth it after you have recieved an orange. Use Keycodes to buy Synergy Mods. They determine if a gun is powerful or not. the rarity just adds small bonus effects...

[Russ]

For cost effectiveness, Tier 2 is the way forward, but if you're actually looking for loot, go with t3, 4 is a colossal waste of time.