Community Help: Tiered Boxes and Drop Rates

[Overtkill21]

So as I was purchasing various tiered boxes last night – getting green after green after green, I realized that there is a lot of talk on here about which Tier box is the best, in terms of drop rate. Well, I am here to say that, without any insider knowledge, they most likely have the exact same rate.

Most folks are looking at this math problem as a simple probability. Example:

• Jimmy buys 25 Tier 4 boxes and receives 4 legendaries.
• Jimmy also buys 50 Tier 3 boxes and receives 3 legendaries.

Now it would be easy to say that Jimmy has a drop rate of 4% on the Tier 4’s (4 hits out of 100 possible weapons) and only 2% on the Tier 3’s (3 hits out of 150 possible) however this is not the case. (For you to actually gauge the “drop rate” in this manner you’d need a ridiculous sample size – preferably infinity. The guy building a spread sheet of drops is never going to accurately calculate the drop rate, set by the devs.)

You see, you likely have the same probability for a legendary weapon at each slot, not at each box.

For instance, let’s say you have a 0.05% chance of pulling a Legendary, what does this mean?

It means that in the Tiered boxes it breaks down thusly:

• Tier 2 – 0.05% then 0.05%
• Tier 3 – 0.05% then 0.05% then 0.05%
• Tier 4 – 0.05% then 0.05% then 0.05% then 0.05%

You actually never increase your probability of pulling an orange, no matter what box you choose. As they say, the dice have no memory. “Rolling” an orange in one slot of a Tier 4 box does not negate the possibility that on the next “roll” you receive another. However this works out most often in the opposite direction as undesirable weapons (crap outs) outnumber “hits”.

Another way of putting it:

Lottery tickets – by purchasing a single lottery ticket you have a 1:650 million chance of winning. By purchasing 2 lottery tickets you still only have a 1:650 million chance, you just get that chance twice. Could you purchase 650 million tickets and still not win? Absolutely this is the case. You never have a 650 million:650 million (1:1) chance no matter how many tickets you purchase – because each purchase doesn’t remember the last and check it off. (The dice have no memory.)

So let’s say Bob purchased 10 lottery tickets from Piggly Wiggly. Bob wins the lottery – one of his tickets hit. What was the percent drop rate for his Piggly Wiggly tickets? If you were to look at it like many are looking at boxes then there is a 10% drop rate for lottery winning at the Piggly Wiggly. (I’d be heading there right now if this were the case. Are there still Piggly Wiggly’s somewhere?)

So, now what does this mean to you, the Defiance player with scrip in his pocket and Legendaries in his dreams?

It means:

• Tier 2 box each slot (or "dice rolls" or “chance” or “lottery ticket”) costs 4 Keys, and 500 Scrip.
• Tier 3 each slot costs 8 keys and 666.67 Scrip.
• Tier 4 each slot costs 16 keys and 750 Scrip.

Tier 4’s give you MORE chances not the BEST chances. So are you the type that buys 20 PowerBall tickets or just 1?

Now it is possible that they slightly increase the probability at each tier but there is no indication in the description of the boxes that would lead you to believe that. In Mass Effect 3 each of the tiered boxes indicated that they had an increased chance over the previous tier.

Feel free to disagree with me but please explain your reasoning.

[Slackaveli]

yes, Talequah, OK has a Piggly Wiggly. My ex's great uncle John Askew used to own them all.

I agree with your math, i've been preaching the same thing. HOWEVER, I am convinced that you GET BETTER ROLLS on the bonuses on tier 4s.

[Babydoll]

why did u feel like u needed to make another thread on t4 lockboxes? who cares what the chances are ...if they made them any higher then u would have all you wanted and quit the game..get over it and play until you reach max level then buy lockboxes ...the color weapons dont mean jack till u are at max level ...wtf try and use an orange at 200 ego when u are at 3000 ego? just quit worring about the color of the weapon and play the game ..they are no better than greens and blues

[Rikomi]

Tier 2 is best, and oranges are worth it. Rarity impacts the items stats more than level.

[Zabuza]

...Are there still Piggly Wiggly’s somewhere?...

Yes and they have the best ****ing meat selection of any grocery store around (Besides the guy who sells his homegrown steaks out of a deep freezer in the back of truck at the farmer's market. Don't get fooled by the meat resellers, they have the same setup. You can mostly tell by the packaging. The resellers buy it like Avon products and go door to door and try to sell. The farmer's market guy has a permit to sell his meat at the farmer's market.)

Also, they cut all meat for free. Sometimes I go in and test that **** (To see which employees will do it without question). Now, I have gone full dumb *** and asked to get a package of hot dogs sliced up (they did it) and one of those big *** canned hams (also sliced it and put it on meat tray and wrapped it.) Now all I do is get them to cut up my bone-in tenderloins.

Interesting Fact: Many privately owned eateries get their ground beef from Piggly Wiggly.

[Mabster]

why did u feel like u needed to make another thread on t4 lockboxes?

Who gives a $%#€ if the topic has already been up...

On a completely unrelated topic. Is there a way of blocking people on this forum without visiting their profile?

[Overtkill21]

why did u feel like u needed to make another thread on t4 lockboxes? who cares what the chances are ...if they made them any higher then u would have all you wanted and quit the game..get over it and play until you reach max level then buy lockboxes ...the color weapons dont mean jack till u are at max level ...wtf try and use an orange at 200 ego when u are at 3000 ego? just quit worring about the color of the weapon and play the game ..they are no better than greens and blues

Guess you can't read, or choose not to. Let me guess, you stopped at the first sentence. I am not complaining about the drops merely trying to explain how the tiered boxes work. Thank you for your extremely unproductive and ridiculous post.

[Overtkill21]

@ Mabster - that little bit of quoting is so chock full of awesome-sauce! Thanks.

[Thorburn]

Riddle me this batman: Does the location of the lockbox make a difference?

Once I purchased 10 items worth of lockboxes at one location and 7 of them were shotguns.

Again this happened to me in a different location but it was 7 out of 10 Inffectors.

I feel like it was merely a ca-wince-a-dance but i dunno.

[Overtkill21]

I too am of the superstitious nature. I've been buying more often at the overpass vendor due to the fact that I got my orange FRC Heavy Assault Carbine there. Though if the location matters I'm Babydoll's uncle.